What can we expect from the global economy this summer?

Energy prices affect everything, so expect the consumer price index in the UK to go to at least 8 per cent, while the retail price index may reach double figures, writes Hamish McRae

Shell has defended its ‘difficult’ decision to keep buying Russian oil (Getty Images)

This will, alas, get worse, perhaps much worse, before it gets better. This applies to the military and humanitarian situation in Ukraine, but it also applies to the impact of the conflict on the world economy.

Every day that passes deepens the economic rift between Russia and the rest of the world. Visa and Mastercard pulling out is just one more step along the road. We are reaching a situation where any business that seeks to do business in or with Russia will find the rest of its activities around the world facing a boycott.

To see the scale of what is happening, start with the statement last week from Apple. It said that it would “pause” sales of iPhones and all other products within Russia and stop all exports. Pause is a weak word, but ask yourself this: what would be the circumstances whereby Apple might end that pause? There will eventually be a ceasefire. But suppose a puppet regime is established and Ukraine sets up a government in exile. Suppose the present Russian regime survives. It is hard to see how Apple could resume sales until an independent government is established in Ukraine, and there is radical change in Moscow.