Truss and Kwarteng are learning the hard way about who really runs the show

Britain’s economic policy will be framed to fit in with what the backbenchers will vote for and what the markets will pay for, writes Hamish McRae

There are a few weeks where Kwarteng has the opportunity to show he can learn (Pool/AFP/Getty)

Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng are learning the hard way who runs the show, and it is not them. UK economic policy will be framed to fit in with what the backbenchers will vote for and what the markets will pay for. They may have a bit of leeway over timing, if the plan by the chancellor to stick to the 23 November date for the Budget holds and it does not have to be brought forward. But everything they do has to pass those twin tests.

We have already seen the cut in the 45 per cent top tax rate to 40 per cent reversed under pressure from the backbenchers. But that does not change the numbers to any significant effect, with the independent Institute for Fiscal Studies pointing out that the estimated £2bn of revenue a year lost was a rounding error in the context of a £45bn tax package. The problem was that it did not pass the smell test: it just seemed wrong to do something like this at this time.

Whatever the chancellor does or does not do in the weeks ahead – notably on benefits – it will have to be credible to MPs sitting behind him in the Commons.