Keir Starmer’s job in winning back the ‘red wall’ is tougher than it looks

He is a serious man for serious times, but the Labour leader will have to say that his party is ‘under new management’ thousands of times before the public notices, says Andrew Grice

But Starmer has passed the ‘imagine him in No 10’ test (PA)

The Labour Party is “under new management”. In the long run, perhaps Keir Starmer’s effective riposte to Boris Johnson will prove the most significant moment in a busy political week, which saw the report on Russian interference in the UK and Johnson’s first anniversary as prime minister.

By highlighting Jeremy Corbyn’s stance on Russia, Johnson helped Starmer distance himself from his predecessor. Corbyn’s response to the Salisbury nerve agent attack probably mattered more than we realised; the public noticed and it still came up in focus groups as the Tories planned last December’s election. Foreign and defence policy have been a left-right battleground inside Labour since before the Second World War. Corbyn’s anti-Americanism (not the same as being anti-Trump) and opposition to the UK nuclear deterrent has a long history in the party. Labour’s former “red wall” voters, who flocked to Johnson, will want to see Labour being strong on security matters before returning to the fold. Hence Starmer’s patriotism – and too much of it for the hard left’s liking.

Starmer would not have chosen antisemitism to be in the headlines but Corbyn’s legacy has put it there. The new leader has rightly tackled it head-on. Settling the legal case against former Labour staffers who spoke to the BBC’s Panorama programme enraged Corbyn and his remaining disciples, who say they had legal advice to the contrary. They still appear in denial on antisemitism.

Starmer’s decision perhaps provided the moment they realised they no longer control the party’s levers of power. It was within their rights to pull them when Corbyn had a mandate, and they certainly did, but it’s the Starmer show now.

Some on the hard left are preparing for civil war. Hardliners tell natural allies who backed Starmer: “We told you so.” They claim Starmer has torn up the unity ticket on which he fought the leadership election. They fear a sell-out on Starmer’s other main pledge: to keep Corbyn’s policy agenda. I suspect they are right.

But Corbyn’s allies would be mad to fight on the ground of antisemitism. They would have much more traction with Labour’s 600,000 members on policy. But with the Equality and Human Rights Commission’s report due in the next two months, and likely to find Labour institutionally racist, antisemitism will loom large.

It will be a problem, but also an opportunity for Starmer. All leaders, whether they intend it or not, define themselves against their own party in order to cut through to voters. Ed Miliband and Corbyn were “not Blair”; Starmer most definitely is “not Corbyn”.

But he will have to keep saying “under new management” thousands of times for the public to notice, and say it consistently to prove it. There will be many difficult decisions. The Tories and their newspaper allies will goad Starmer to expel Corbyn and some of his lieutenants, just as Neil Kinnock kicked out Militant. That really would mean civil war – and perhaps even a formal Labour split. Starmer will probably prefer to unite his soft left with as many on the hard left he can persuade to put winning power in the country before doing so in the party.

The new leader has a more coherent strategy than Corbyn ever had. His antidote to Johnson’s appeal is to make competence versus incompetence the dividing line. It works well in a national crisis being badly handled by the government, in which the PM’s broad-brush bluster, rather than mastery of detail, is exposed.

Labour’s attack will be on “Tory incompetence”, not Johnson’s, in case the Tories panic and change horses before the next election. Starmer has already passed the “can you imagine this man in No 10?” test, even if the rest of his party has not. His “boring” label is out of date; he is a serious man for serious times.

Johnson attacking Starmer as an “Islingtonian Remainer” works in the red-turned-blue wall seats, for now. Starmer has a huge task there, and in Scotland. But by the 2024 election, the Tories will struggle to make Brexit the dividing line, especially as Starmer will not gift them ammunition as Corbyn did.

“Time for change,” if the change is communicated well enough, will be a powerful message after 14 years of Tory rule.

So Johnson, I suspect, will resort to culture wars. That’s why he’s tough on law and order, and will be tempted to sound tough on issues such as immigration and judges (a review of judicial review is likely to be announced soon). He will set traps for Labour, such as scrapping plans to allow trans people to change their legal gender by self-identification. But Starmer will be clever at side-stepping the traps.

Johnson will eventually be judged, not on coronavirus, but on his promise to “level up” the poorest regions. Showing tangible progress by 2024 was a big ask before the pandemic. As a health crisis is replaced by a jobs crisis, it will be even tougher. Starmer’s presence means Johnson can no longer rely on a weak opposition. Sensible Tories understand this, though many others don’t. Under new management, Labour is back in business.