There are bleak days ahead for the economy – but don’t give up hope

It is useful to look at the world economy as a whole, and if you do that, there are glints of sunlight between the dark clouds, writes Hamish McRae

What happens to interest rates depends on inflation, but it also depends on the overall strength of the economy (AP)

These are confusing and troubling days, but the Easter break gives us all a moment to reflect on what is happening and hopefully pick a path through the gloom.

It is for the military experts to guide us through the likely outcomes of the war in Ukraine, and for the political analysts to gauge the long-term geopolitical implications of that. The focus of economists is narrower: given the huge uncertainties, what can we sensibly say about the path of the world economy in the coming months?

The question is so big that the best way to answer it is to break it into bite-sized chunks. So let’s do so, starting with inflation.