The most important thing in the French election? Securing Mélenchon’s votes

For Macron’s brand of centrism to bring him a second term, he will need at least some votes from a first-round candidate who represents quite a different, if not opposite, strand of political thinking, writes Mary Dejevsky

Having apparently drawn so many votes from the mainstream left and right in the first round, Macron needs a slice of the Mélenchon vote to win. And this is where things could go wrong (Getty)

The spotlight, following the first round of the French presidential election, has been trained on Marine Le Pen. If France were to elect a president from the far right – whatever efforts she has made to soften her image and broaden her appeal – this would have enormous consequences not just for France, but for Europe and other parts of the world as well.

But the inexorable focus on Le Pen has tended to obscure two other features of Sunday’s election that could turn out to be as significant, and not just for France, in the event that Le Pen does not win. One is the performance of Emmanuel Macron and his brand of political centrism; the other is the unexpectedly strong showing of the hard-left candidate, Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

First, Macron. Five years ago, he created his own centrist vehicle, En Marche!, and rode it, against all odds, to become the youngest-ever president of France. On Sunday, despite all the criticisms of his aloofness, his arrogance, his “Jupiter” complex and the rest, he improved on his previous first-round performance by almost four percentage points (from 24 to 27.6 per cent). In fact, he increased his share of the vote by more than Le Pen did (23.4, from 21.3 per cent). If he wins the run-off in two weeks’ time, he will become the country’s first two-term president in a generation. Judged by electoral performance alone, he must be doing something right.

Along the way, Macron converted his movement into a party – La République En Marche! – so creating for himself a parliamentary base. He has also, as Sunday’s results show, seen off France’s traditional parties of the centre left and right so effectively as to cast doubt on whether they will ever return.

What Macron, a one-time banker and former minister in François Hollande’s Socialist government, appears to have seen is that in France, at least, there could be a political future in combining elements of both left and right. Indeed, that changing times – digital technology, a more diverse population, shifting social mores, the demands of an international market and much more – meant that many orthodoxies on both sides were outdated and that a new flexibility was needed.

Macron’s 2022 manifesto does exactly this. He stresses the importance of sovereignty – France’s and Europe’s – as well as protecting French agriculture (for the right), while wanting to help young people get into farming and make digital and ecological benefits more widely shared, including measures to make home insulation and electric cars more accessible to the less well off (something for the left).

Controversially, he wants to raise the state pension age to 65 and modernise the benefits system, including encouraging recipients to, as is sometimes said, “give something back”. He also proposes abolishing the television licence, better pay for teachers, more freedoms for schools and universities, more and better vocational education, and more focus on law and order. The left-right giving and taking is clear.

I wonder, though, does this combination of left and right, social liberalism with elements of market discipline, and an emphasis on “independence” from the level of the state downwards, remind you of anyone? Wasn’t this in some way the combination that brought Boris Johnson two terms as mayor of left-wing London, helped sweep him to his current parliamentary majority, dictates the “levelling up” agenda, and could yet – for all his failings – still win him another election? Then think of Mario Draghi in Italy, a non-politician who has become so successful in spanning the left-right divide and keeping the show on the road that he cannot be spared to become president – at least not yet.

For Macron’s brand of centrism to bring him a second term, however, he will need at least some votes from a first-round candidate who represents quite a different, if not opposite, strand of political thinking. Jean-Luc Mélenchon turned out to be the surprise of the campaign, and there were times during the count on Sunday evening when it looked as though he could be in real contention for Le Pen’s second place (which would have changed the whole complexion of the run-off).

In the end, he came third, but lagged only 1.2 points behind Le Pen. What is more, far from seeming a political has-been after what was viewed as his maverick fourth place in 2017, the 70-year-old increased his share of the vote by marginally more than Le Pen increased hers, and attracted more of the youth vote (18-34s), than any other candidate.

He also drew support from voters in poorer and less-favoured areas. I noticed, by the way, both in Lille in northern France, as in Marseille in the south, the poster boards in rundown parts of town had most of the election posters torn off or defaced – with the conspicuous exception of Mélenchon’s. His manifesto included many hard-left, even populist standbys, including a greater use of referendums and citizens’ initiatives, more localism in policing and the courts, renationalising the railways and motorways, a ceiling for prices of basic necessities; no rise in the pension age, higher minimum wage; the right to requisition empty homes, and more education places, from creches to colleges.

It is not hard to see something of the Jeremy Corbyn effect in Mélenchon’s unexpected success. Not only has he identified issues that appeal to younger voters at a time when no other candidate seems to have much time for them, but he exemplifies the same qualities of ideological consistency, standing up for the underdog and an old-fashioned egalitarian idealism that drew younger voters to rediscover Corbyn, in many ways a politician from another age. Whether this heralds a revival of the hard left in a new generation is another matter.

But Mélenchon’s voters now have a choice to make – and it is one that could decide the election. Having apparently drawn so many votes from the mainstream left and right in the first round, Macron needs a slice of the Mélenchon vote to win. And this is where things could go wrong.

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As most other first-round losing candidates urged their supporters to back Macron in the second round, if only to keep Le Pen out, Mélenchon was less categorical. He appealed to his voters not to support Le Pen under any circumstances, but notably stopped short of recommending a vote for Macron. And even if he had – or does so in the coming days – the effect could be limited. Younger voters could prefer to stay at home rather than vote for a candidate they may believe does not represent their interests – even if merely to keep Le Pen out. Older and poorer voters, on the other hand, could be tempted to switch to Le Pen, who has long extended a welcome to people who feel no one represents their interests.

The contest for Mélenchon’s votes will define the campaign over the next two weeks, and it presents Macron with a problem he may not have expected. To take even some of Mélenchon’s votes, he needs to court the young and the left. If he does this, however, he could risk losing his more right-wing supporters to Le Pen. His political antennae will need to be as finely tuned as they were when he identified the gap in the political spectrum that became En Marche!.