Dominic Cummings may be a brilliant campaigner – but it will be tough to move past a political storm like this

The prime minister has defended his chief aide, but damage has clearly been done, writes Andrew Grice

Dominic Cummings has faced a number of questions from the press about his conduct (Getty)

The trouble with Dom is that he thinks he is the Messiah,” one of his colleagues told me. And he is a friend, not one of his many foes. Fittingly, some Conservatives are speculating that Dominic Cummings will resign but be “resurrected” in time to be at Boris Johnson’s side at the 2024 general election.

The prime minister has staunchly defended his closest aide, despite his 260-mile trip to Durham to safeguard his four-year-old son when his wife had coronavirus symptoms in March and he feared he would contract it.

Even Cummings’ critics admit he is a brilliant campaigner, as witnessed by his historic victories in the 2016 Brexit referendum and December’s election. But even some friends concede his pugilistic approach is not suited to government, particularly when “the enemy” is a virus, rather than Labour, the EU, judges, parliament or the civil service.

Although Johnson will have hoped the Cummings story would be a one-day wonder, the Sunday newspaper headlines were grim. Cummings denied the most serious new allegation – that he went back to Durham, where his parents live, for a second time in April, after returning to work in Downing Street following his isolation period thanks to the virus. Cummings had better be right about this; if he is not, he will have to resign.

As for the allegation that he visited Barnard Castle, 30 miles from his parents’ home, during his initial stay. The transport secretary, Grant Shapps, who was the minister put up to go on the Sunday political shows said that he did not know if Cummings visited Barnard Castle on 12 April but added that would have been after his 14-day isolation period.

The explanations did not stop a string of Tory backbenchers calling for Cummings to resign or be sacked. It’s clear that several ministers agree privately. First out of the traps was Steve Baker, a prominent Brexiteer, demolishing ridiculous claims it was all a Remainers’ plot against Vote Leave’s campaign director.

His problem is that the many loose ends and answered questions will keep the story running. Tellingly, Sky News’s Sophy Ridge gave Shapps advance notice she would ask him about the Cummings family’s car journey to Durham, because they might have come into contact with other people. Instead, in vain, he tried to talk about his transport brief, arguing that plans such as upgrading the A66 “actually matter to people’s everyday lives”.

Yet Cummings’ actions do matter to the public because the lockdown affects everyone. Similarly, Shapps told the BBC’s Andrew Marr the incident does not create wriggle room for others on the lockdown measures: “I don’t think it has changed anything.” But it has, because many people have made huge, heart-rending sacrifices, such as not visiting their parents or seeing their grandchildren. To say the government’s message on the lockdown has been undermined is an understatement.

Cummings is sometimes right to dismiss media stories as the product of an out of touch Westminster bubble. But not this time. Characteristically, he told reporters outside his London home when asked about the initial allegations: “It’s not about what you guys think.” It is when the media is thinking the same as most people in the country. If Cummings had showed a little contrition, and said he had done the best thing for his son, he would have won more sympathy.

The Shapps interviews showed the media will not allow ministers to talk about much else – even if Johnson wants to talk about the next phase of the lockdown. Often a politician in the eye of a storm resigns not because of the original offence but because the noise it creates drowns out everything else and means they can’t do their job. And the oldest rule in politics is that it’s not the action itself but the attempted cover-up that gets you.

The government’s scientific advisers will privately fear the affair’s impact on compliance with the rules. The timing is bad, just as Johnson must explain the next stage of lockdown easing to the public. He has largely avoided media questions since returning from his illness, but must surely face the music this week. Although the Commons is in recess, he will appear in front of the Liaison Committee of senior MPs on Wednesday. It could be a dangerous liaison.

Johnson might well need to buy some time, by ordering an investigation into whether Cummings broke the rules, as Labour demands. It would be the right thing to do. It might create some space for Johnson to get over the clearer lockdown message the country needs. But such an inquiry might not bring much comfort for Cummings. It would normally be carried out by Mark Sedwill, the cabinet secretary, and there are reports that Cummings tried unsuccessfully to oust him.

Cummings will not want his media critics to claim his scalp, and his staying power should not be underestimated. He bounced back earlier this year when his influence appeared to be waning, winning a power struggle with Sajid Javid, who quit as chancellor. However, the man who gave Johnson “take back control” and “get Brexit done” should have known that perception is reality.