Will new coronavirus restrictions lead to a double-dip recession?

Part of the difficulty in assessing what is happening is that while some damage is obvious – shuttered restaurants – much is not, writes Hamish McRae

Reaction to sales might be one pointer to how serious a recession will be (PA)

The first wave of lockdowns led to by far the deepest recession since the 1930s. Now another wave of coronavirus restrictions is sweeping across not only the UK but much of Europe. Will they mean that there will be another leg to the recession – not a V but a W – before the recovery is sustained?

We cannot know for sure because we are only just starting to see the imposition of new measures and we don’t know how deep they will go or how long they will last. But every day that passes brings new restrictions somewhere. Paris and several other major cities are under curfew. Spain has declared a state of emergency. The Netherlands has closed all bars, restaurants and coffee shops. Italy has a string of regional restrictions… and so on. 

Within the UK, Northern Ireland and Liverpool are under particularly tight curbs, and there is political pressure both for and against these measures being extended.