Coronavirus will disrupt the government in a number of ways – the immediate challenge is the Budget

Boris Johnson was slow to respond to the spread of the virus, but there is no way it can be ignored now, writes Andrew Grice

Rishi Sunak’s Budget debut was already going to be a baptism of fire (Reuters)

Boris Johnson was very slow off the mark in his response to coronavirus. Worryingly, his government did not give the impression the outbreak was its top priority seemingly until former chancellor George Osborne said it.

The Evening Standard editor tweeted on 28 February: “The British government now needs to go onto a ‘war footing’ with the coronavirus: daily NHS press briefings, regular Cobra meetings chaired by the prime minister, cabinet ministers on all major media shows. The public is fearful, wants information and needs to know their leaders have got a grip.”

Then all that happened. Johnson should learn lessons. Being chairman of the board and delegating to ministers doesn’t work. Matt Hancock is an energetic health secretary and good media performer, but in a crisis, the nation expects to see its prime minister lead from the front. (Memo to the PM: visit the next area hit by flooding.)

To be fair, Johnson got there eventually on coronavirus. His Downing Street press conference showed he can rise to the occasion (and cut out the jokes) when it matters, as he did in the election. He was wise to be flanked by the government’s chief medical and scientific advisers. Michael Gove was wrong: today, the public can’t have enough of experts.

It is in Johnson’s own interests to maintain a high-profile, laser-like focus on coronavirus. The outbreak will now define his premiership – at least the first phase of it, and perhaps all of it. If voters think he was off the pace, they will be unforgiving. Such judgements are hard to shift, as John Major discovered after Black Wednesday in 1992. If Johnson gets things right, people probably won’t thank him, but that’s politics.

Indeed, it is now dawning on ministers and MPs that coronavirus will transform UK politics. The government’s priorities – delivering tangible change in the red-turned-blue-wall of seats and securing an EU trade deal – have unexpectedly been trumped. It’s too early to know the impact on the economy, but safe to say coronavirus will further depress the UK’s already sluggish growth. The Paris-based Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) downgraded its UK growth forecast for this year to 0.8 per cent, warning that a worst-case coronavirus scenario would leave it “close to zero”.

Although Johnson won’t admit it, there’s a chance the outbreak will make his ambitious December deadline for an EU trade deal totally impossible. If both the EU and UK are swamped by it, they might not have the capacity for the complex negotiations. There must be a question mark over the five further sessions of talks scheduled by June. Coronavirus could also have an impact on the UK’s stance. Brave talk about accepting more trade friction at the borders as the price of regaining sovereignty might look less attractive if business is already struggling to get parts from overseas and maintain production. The combination of coronavirus and Brexit could even push the UK into recession. How would that go down with the Tories’ new working-class supporters?

Depending when the outbreak peaks, local authority and mayoral elections in England in May might have to be postponed. But reports that parliament will be shut down for months are premature; Johnson got his fingers burnt when he tried that last year.

Coronavirus might help the government in some ways. Ministers got away with their quiet U-turn on rescuing Flybe because the virus proved the death blow for the ailing regional airline. The media focus on the disease will allow the government to escape normal scrutiny in other areas. It will make it very hard for the new Labour leader to make an impact on voters in the brief window of opportunity their election would normally bring next month. In a national emergency, the opposition must be broadly supportive, which helps the government.

Johnson’s most immediate challenge is next Wednesday’s Budget. Rishi Sunak’s debut, just 26 days after becoming chancellor, was already going to be a baptism of fire. Now he must prepare the nation for a firestorm. He will need to announce short-term measures to help business and workers cope with the outbreak. He should include the two million employees who do not qualify for statutory sick pay.

The uncertain outlook caused by lower tax receipts, and the likelihood of finding more money for health, local authorities and social care, will probably persuade Sunak to put off key tax and spend decisions until his second Budget and government-wide spending review in the autumn.

The chancellor should take a leaf out of the EU’s book. Italy has announced two stimulus packages worth £3.9bn and a third is coming, probably part of a boost coordinated in Brussels and easing of EU fiscal targets for member states. Treasury hints suggest Sunak will not opt for a big fiscal stimulus to combat the chilling effect of coronavirus. That would be a mistake. The threat to an already weak economy is real; Sunak must use every weapon at his disposal to keep the wheels turning.