The rear-view mirror ought to warn us against making 2024 election predictions

It’s amazing how much can happen in a year. I thought it was quite possible that the UK would never leave the EU and Johnson wouldn’t last long, yet here we are, writes John Rentoul

Many thought Boris Johnson wouldn’t last long, because they believed he would fail to deliver Brexit (Getty)

A year ago Conservative MPs held the first of five ballots in their leadership election. Boris Johnson came top, with 114 votes out of 313. Esther McVey, Mark Harper and Andrea Leadsom failed to win the 17 votes needed to stay in the race and by the evening Matt Hancock, who won 20 votes, had also withdrawn.

It was not certain that Johnson, with about one third of the votes, was going to win, but there was already speculation about how he would deal with a “Remainer” parliament if he did.

Rory Stewart, who would eventually come fifth, appeared in front of the TV cameras that were then stationed permanently in the Central Lobby of parliament, to warn him against suspending democracy: “If Boris Johnson dared to lock the doors of parliament, we would bring him down.”