For Boris Johnson, it is now only a matter of time – so let the Tory plotting and wooing begin in earnest

The field of leadership candidates is getting wider by the week, with every wing of the party coalescing around their favoured representative, writes Marie Le Conte

Even if Johnson doesn’t go now, those waiting in the wings to replace him know that he is only one more scandal or rebellion away from being ousted (PA Wire)

What will Partygate be remembered for? Will it be the colourful newspaper stories? The unexpected fame of Sue Gray? The Met Police’s comically poor sense of timing? Wilf’s broken swing?

Things may of course change quickly but at time of writing, it doesn’t look as if the suitcases of wine will end Boris Johnson’s career. Gray’s report was defanged by the police investigation and Westminster no longer feels as febrile as it did a few weeks ago.

Said police investigation may prove fatal for the prime minister, but it feels unlikely; timing is everything, and the world will almost certainly have moved on by then. So, the question remains: what has Partygate really changed in British politics?

One answer may lie in the 2019 intake of Conservative MPs. As I wrote a few months ago in this newspaper, one reason why Johnson was (relatively) safe was that the parliamentary Tory party did not know its own shape anymore. Dozens of new MPs were elected in 2019, most of them from non-traditional backgrounds for parliament, and after about four days they were sent home for the duration of the pandemic. There were few opportunities for more senior MPs to get to know them, and what makes them tick.

If you were a leadership contender or, more broadly, someone unhappy with Johnson, this was a problem. A contest will only really be triggered by a person or group certain enough that they could probably win over their colleagues, and the 2019 intake remained a problematic mystery box.

After all, the MPs – awkwardly nicknamed “Boris Babies” by corners of the press – got into the Commons thanks to his landslide, and were seen as loyal to him until proven otherwise. Given the size of the intake, they could have proved to be an effective roadblock against any leadership challenge.

Though some of them had been vocal about their opposition to certain specific policies, it wasn’t thought that they really wanted rid of Johnson – until now. Between what was dubbed the “pork pie plot” and various grumblings arising from the Commons, it now seems clear that the intake is no longer wedded to the prime minister.

In fact, there was a point when they seemed keener to oust him than the older guard was. For a week or so, the worry among Tory benches was that the 2019 lot would trigger a vote of no confidence more or less all by themselves.

It is a crucial development. Even if Johnson doesn’t go now, those waiting in the wings to replace him know that he is only one more scandal or rebellion away from being ousted. It is a question of when not if, which means that their plotting and wooing can now begin in earnest.

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We know that Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss have already started working behind the scenes, but it will be interesting to see who else joins the fray. After all, one of the reasons Johnson is still in post is that neither is currently backed by a majority of the parliamentary party.

In this context, centre-right Tom Tugendhat announcing last week that he would run felt significant. It seems fair to say that he probably will not win, but that doesn’t hugely matter at this stage. Instead, it is relevant because it may well open the floodgates.

A party leader can survive having two senior frontbenchers making leadership noises around them; even a pre-Brexit Cameron had to deal with George Osborne and Theresa May doing so. What makes their position increasingly precarious is a field of candidates getting wider by the week, with every wing of the party slowly but surely coalescing around their favoured representative.

In short: the host has turned the music down and the guests have gone to get their coats. The party isn’t over quite yet, but everyone can tell it is coming to an end.