Trump has treated the coronavirus pandemic like a Democratic problem – now it’s reaching his supporters

New research suggests the coronavirus is spreading to Trump country. Will that change the way red states view the pandemic? Richard Hall reports

Demonstrators hold a "rolling car rally" in front of Democratic Governor Ned Lamont's residence while protesting the state's stay-at-home order to combat the coronavirus pandemic (Getty Images)

When the coronavirus arrived in the United States, it hit the coastal cities first. It came to Seattle in the west, then New York in the east. San Francisco and Boston followed soon after.

The virus followed no direction besides its own instinct to survive, but in doing so it followed a familiar path. Clusters formed around large urban centres. Death rates were higher among minorities and the poor. The virus took on a political dimension: it was Democratic-leaning, metropolitan areas that were being overwhelmed.

The virus was killing Americans, but it is hard to escape the impression that many viewed it as a blue state problem. That came from the very top. Donald Trump sought to characterise the threat of the virus in partisan terms because it happened to be located in Democratic states. He called criticism from Democratic lawmakers of his administration's slow response to the outbreak “their new hoax.” He publicly squabbled with Democratic governors calling for help from to acquire badly needed medical supplies, and said it was “not fair for Republicans” to “bailout” blue states impacted economically by the virus. He railed against lockdown orders put in place by Democrats in the battleground states of Michigan, Minnesota and Virginia — despite those states following the advice given by his administration’s public health experts.

Where the virus hit, and the way in which the president responded to it, had a marked effect on how people on different sides of the political divide viewed the threat. A poll conducted by NBC and the Wall Street Journal in the middle of March found that around 68 per cent of Democrats were worried that someone in their family could catch the virus, while just 40 per cent of Republicans shared that concern. In a separate poll by Reuters, more Democrats said they had changed their daily routine since the outbreak began.

Mr Trump’s initial refusal to take the pandemic seriously may have its roots in where the virus hit first, but something else is troubling him now. The president has spent years tying his electoral fate to the economy, and today, a nationwide lockdown meant to protect lives endangers both. This has led to a marked shift away from fighting the virus in favour of restarting the economy.

As part of this effort, the White House has encouraged states to loosen those lockdown measures, even as the number of confirmed cases across the country rises. This has produced headlines that may be difficult to explain to future generations: “Missouri marks record number of coronavirus cases in a single day as state reopens,” reads one in The Hill. The political divide over reopening is stark: Out of the 24 states that have partially reopened, 21 voted for Mr Trump in 2016.

Here in New York, there is a sense of frustration among medical professionals over the push to reopen in areas where the virus hasn’t yet reached its peak. One nurse who works in an intensive care unit here in the city told me this week: “I wish I could show them what I am seeing. If they could see the ICU [intensive care unit] they might think differently.” Although there are signs New York is through the worst of it, the rooms in her ward are currently doubled up with hospital beds for Covid-19 patients.

The likelihood is, however, that she won’t have to bring them to New York to see the devastation this virus can cause. It may soon come to them. According to an analysis by William Frey, a renowned demographer at the Brookings Institution, the coronavirus is spreading into rural and suburban counties, into the Midwest and the south. In other words, it is arriving in Donald Trump’s America.

His analysis shows that between March 30 and April 26, 901 counties have been newly designated with a high prevalence of Covid-19 — meaning a rate of more than 100 cases per 100,000 people. A total of 639 of those countries voted for Mr Trump in 2016.

The majority of them are located in Georgia, Louisiana and Mississippi in the south, but a significant number are in swing states Michigan and Pennsylvania. Moreover, Mr Frey writes, the demographic makeup of these areas lean towards Trump-friendly.

“These residents are less racially diverse, with 62 per cent identifying as white compared to 48 per cent for high-prevalence counties as of 29 March, and 60.4 per cent for the nation as a whole. Likewise, they have lower shares of foreign-born residents (11.8 per cent) and households making over $100,000 per year (27.5 per cent) than earlier-designated high-prevalence counties,” said Mr Frey.

Mr Frey’s analysis of how this will impact the national discussion about the coronavirus is an optimistic one. “Public health professionals tell us that Covid-19 will continue to spread even as many Americans practice social distancing. As the coronavirus moves into new areas where a broader range of population groups reside, attitudes favouring greater preventive measures and delaying the reopening the economy may also become more widespread, perhaps making national discussions about these actions less politically divisive,” he suggests.

Mr Trump is betting that by easing the lockdown, he can restart the economy and boost his electoral hopes in November. But the irony here is that in attempting to do so, he may be putting his own base and his own supporters in danger. Not only that, his decisions now will impact crucial voters in swing states.

Many Trump-supporting states have thus far been shielded from the true horrors of the virus. They have not heard the sirens wail through the night, or seen the freezer trucks line up outside hospitals to receive the dead. Mr Trump’s base has shown itself to be notoriously immovable, but will that continue when the crisis truly hits home for them as it has for the residents of New York?