Why Texas’s abortion law could be a deciding factor in California and Virginia elections – and even the midterms

Campaigners believe controversial legislation may galvanise Democrats, writes Eric Garcia

Texas law has sparked outrage among pro-choice Americans (AP)

The new Texas law that severely restricts access to abortion is already having an effect on California’s gubernatorial recall election and could have an effect in both the Virginia race for governor and the 2022 midterms.

The law, which bans termination of a pregnancy as soon as foetal cardiac activity is detected, went into effect earlier this month. Most activity is detected around six weeks, before most people know they are pregnant. The law would also allow anyone in the United States to sue someone who “aids and abets” receiving an abortion in the state and successful litigants would receive $10,000 in damages.

It has already proved to be an effective political cudgel for Democrats. President Joe Biden called the legislation “almost un-American.” Democrats have also invoked the law in California, where incumbent Democratic Gov Gavin Newsom faces a recall. Vice President Kamala Harris criticised Texas Governor Greg Abbott for comments she said were dismissive of rape victims who might get pregnant.

Jodi Hicks, president and CEO of Planned Parenthood Affiliates of California, told The Independent that it had sounded the alarm and plenty of people have signed up to volunteer to support efforts to keep Mr Newsom in office.

“As we talked about the importance of having a leader that is supportive of reproductive and sexual health care, Texas happened and I think it definitely galvanised and woke up a large electorate that have turned in their ballot to vote ‘no,’” Ms Hicks said.

“The problem for Republicans is that is if this was a one-off law and it was done, I think that they’d be probably OK, whereas 12 months out, there’s a lot that’s going to happen,” said Sean McElwee, executive director of progressive polling outlet Data for Progress. Mr McElwee told The Independent that the problem is that the US Supreme Court is going to be hearing a case involving Mississippi’s law that bans most abortions after 15 weeks.

“That’s going to be another pick at the scab,” he said.

“And I think you could end up seeing that sort of muting the normal sort of midterm backlash effect,” he said.

A statement to The Independent from Emily Cain, executive director of EMILY’S List, the pro-choice women’s political organisation, exemplified the message pro-choice Democrats plan to use.

“An overwhelming majority of voters support Roe and the right to make your own health care decisions. You can be sure Democrats will let voters know where their representatives stand on this issue, and Democratic pro-choice women will make Republicans pay at the ballot box,” Ms Cain said.

Mr McElwee said that while Donald Trump’s presidency brought many people of lower socioeconomic status, including many people of colour and previously unengaged voters, into the Republican fold, Democrats gained plenty of voters of higher socioeconomic status, including plenty of suburban voters and women. He added that laws like Texas’s could lead to suburban women being motivated to turn out for Democrats in a way that could stave off a midterm election result that typically happens when the party in the White House loses a substantial number of seats.

“And I think you could end up seeing that sort of muting the normal sort of midterm backlash effect,” he said.

Christine Matthews, a Republican pollster at Bellwether Research & Consulting, said that the law in Texas will be a motivating factor for women voters who are pro-choice but are not single-issue voters.

Ms Matthews told The Independent that the law is already having an impact in Virginia’s gubernatorial election, as former Democratic Governor Terry McAuliffe is hammering Republican nominee Glenn Youngkin on abortion. Virginia’s gubernatorial race is often seen as a bellwether since it normally elects a governor from the party opposite the president’s, but the state is becoming increasingly bluer, having elected a Democrat twice in a row.

“We’ll start to see the impact if there’s exit polling or post-election polling done in Virginia’s governor’s race, because we’ve got that election in November,” she said. “And we’ll see how many voters, how many women, in particular, say this was a consideration for them or a top concern when casting their vote.”