Inside Politics: Universal credit cuts not assessed and Covid cases drop

DWP says ‘not possible to produce a robust estimate’ of impact as new Covid cases drop for five days running, writes Matt Mathers

(PA)

History-maker. The extraordinary swimmer Adam Peaty has secured Team GB’s first gold medal at the Tokyo Olympics, breaking another record in the process. He is the first British swimmer to defend an Olympic title after powering home in the 100m breaststroke. In a post-swim interview, the 26-year-old, audibly exhausted and elated in equal measure, dropped the f-bomb twice as his emotions understandably got the better of him. There could well be multiple f-bombs dropped today as the Covid operations sub-committee of cabinet meets to discuss widening the list of key workers exempt from isolation as the “pingdemic” rages on. Elsewhere, Sajid Javid has come under fire for his questionable comments on Covid, cases of the virus are steadily declining, and ministers have not done an impact assessment on universal credit cuts.

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Inside the bubble

The Covid operations sub-committee of cabinet meets today to discuss widening list of key workers exempt from self-isolation.

Coming up shortly:

-Tory MP and lockdown sceptic Steve Baker on talkRadio at 8.05am

-Labour leader Keir Starmer on LBC’s Nick Ferrari at Breakfast at 9am

Daily Briefing

PEAK COVID?: There is some hopeful Covid news to report this morning. Figures show that new cases have fallen for the fifth day in a row, suggesting the current wave may be flattening. The story features on a few of today’s front pages. Significantly, the UK is seeing a consistent drop in positive cases outside of lockdown since the pandemic began, The Times reports. Despite falling cases, ministers are still concerned about low vaccine uptake among young people, it adds. The full impact of unlocking is not yet known, particularly given the first post-freedom day weekend has just passed, with many venues across the country welcoming back customers for the first time in some 18 months. Despite that, Paul Hunter, professor in medicine at the University of East Anglia, says the data is “looking good”. According to The Guardian, increasing numbers of young people are being admitted to hospital for treatment, although most of those ending up in intensive care are not vaccinated.

TONE DEAF: Not the best start in the new job for Sajid Javid. The health secretary – yes, health secretary – has been forced to apologise after saying people should no longer “cower” from Covid. He made the remark in a now-deleted tweet announcing that he’d fully recovered from the virus. There was an immediate backlash from victims and families, who accused the health secretary of being “deeply insensitive”. Javid later conceded it was a “poor choice of word”. It was a curious selection, too, given the excuse put forward: “I was expressing gratitude that the vaccines help us fight back as a society.” Labour and the Liberal Democrats accused the cabinet minister of “offensive and ill-informed comments” and noted that 1 in 60 people in the UK were still estimated to be shielding for medical reasons. Javid’s tone-deaf remark topped off another difficult week for Boris Johnson’s government and its handling of the pandemic with the prime minister, Javid and Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, forced to U-turn on self-isolating after trying to dodge the rules.

HOME OFFICE BLUNDER: The Home Office has taken down its flawed online passport check service after it generated thousands of false negatives for children’s travel documents. Families with imminent holidays booked were wrongly informed by the government website that they would not be admitted to European Union countries. Many parents have told The Independent that the online system insisted their children’s passports had run out for the purposes of travel to the EU, even though it was clear they had many months to run.

BAD TERMS: Not a good look for Labour. The party is quietly recruiting staff on insecure temporary contracts with worse employment conditions while it moves to make a third of its existing permanent employees redundant, The Independent can reveal. The party is being accused of using underhand “fire and rehire” practices condemned by Keir Starmer himself in a speech just a few months ago. Staff were told of the mass redundancies this week, which the party said was “not an easy decision” but was required to get “fighting fit for upcoming campaigns and the next general election”.

STADIUM PASSPORTS: Boris Johnson is said to be considering plans to make vaccine passports mandatory for entry to football matches and other large spectator events with more than 20,000 attendees. “It’s important that fans can continue to watch sporting events over the autumn, which is why we’re exploring the role vaccines might play in this,” a government source said. “This will not only allow full capacity stadiums but has the added bonus of incentivising people of all ages to go and get their jab.” Ministers have already announced that jab certification will be needed for nightclubs from September – a decision both Labour and the Lib Dems have said they will vote against. This move, if a goer, is likely to galvanize that opposition and further provoke Tory rebels on the backbenches. Today’s Telegraph reports that, according to industry surveys, vaccine passports in the workplace are being considered by nearly a third of major businesses.

NO ASSESSMENT: Despite considerable opposition, some of it from within his own party, Sunak earlier this year confirmed that the £20 Universal Credit uplift will be scrapped from the autumn. Now ministers have admitted they don't know what impact the cut will have on claimants. In response to a series of parliamentary questions submitted by Labour, the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) claimed it was “not possible to produce a robust estimate of [the effect of] removing the £20 uplift on levels of in-work poverty or on child poverty”. Asked repeatedly about the cut’s impact on regional inequality, material deprivation, women, ethnic minorities, and the levels of debt claimants would have to take on to survive, DWP minister Will Quince admitted: “No assessment has been made.” Labour said it is “staggering” impact assessments have not been carried out. Shadow work and pensions secretary Jonathan Reynolds said: “To press ahead without considering how this cut will drive up in-work poverty or regional inequality shows, yet again, with this government, it’s all talk. When push comes to shove, they aren’t on the side of working people.”

On the record

“I would like to wait until next weekend to see what impact if any [England’s reopening] has on the epidemic before getting really excited. But it’s looking good.”

Professor in medicine at the University of East Anglia Paul Hunter on falling Covid cases.

From the Twitterati

“No, you CHOSE to appeal to your libertarian bravado-obsessed voter base by making it look macho to get rid of all Covid restrictions. You planned to use your own recovery to justify going against @theBMA’s advice. You’re not sorry. You’re just ‘cowering’ away from the backlash.”

Writer and campaigner Femi Oluwole is not buying Javid’s excuse.

Essential reading

• Andrew Grice, The Independent: Keir Starmer’s tough new approach can’t come a minute too soon
• Joanna Whitehead, The Independent: Priti Patel’s plans for tackling violence against women are absurd
• Giles Fraser, UnHerd: Why I’ll never vote Tory again
• Anand Menon and Jill Rutter, The Guardian: If Britain wants to resolve the Northern Ireland protocol, this is not the way to do it