A dam bursts, but this barbaric attack will not halt Kyiv’s ‘big push’

Ukrainians hope events on the battlefield might precipitate the change in Russia that removes Putin. Askold Krshelnycky meets the troops preparing to move out, and hears what they have planned

Flooding has already submerged a huge swathe of territory, with thousands of people having to be evacuated even as the Russians reportedly shell rescuers and survivors

The blowing up of the Kakhovsky dam in a Russian-occupied area of southern Ukraine might change the dynamic of any Ukrainian plans for a big offensive — but it is coming.

For months speculation about a Ukrainian offensive has grown in proportion to the increasing array of powerful Western-supplied weapons, including tanks, devastatingly precise missiles and artillery of the sort needed to spearhead a large-scale offensive.

The Russians are adamant it has started and Moscow even boasted its forces had already smashed the Ukrainian onslaught, killing hundreds of enemy soldiers and destroying many tanks.

The Ukrainians have acknowledged battles are raging in several areas but said the rout described by the Russians is a product of their fantasies. Even the leader of Russia’s notorious Wagner mercenaries, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has mocked the claims.

The Kremlin declarations of victory sound like wishful thinking directed at Russia’s own population and Moscow’s forces will likely only realise Kyiv’s “big push” has begun when they find Ukrainian soldiers all around them.

The Ukrainians themselves have been coy about what they are up to and have repeatedly said they would not announce the start of any offensive. And now this.

Blowing up the dam seems like an act of panicked desperation on the Kremlin’s part and another piece of evidence that Russian President Vladimir Putin is becoming dangerously unhinged.

Flooding has already submerged a huge swathe of territory, with thousands of people having to be evacuated even as the Russians reportedly shell rescuers and survivors.

The dam’s reservoir provides water for cooling the reactor and other safety procedures at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, Ukraine and Europe’s largest, which is also occupied by Russian troops.

Kyiv has accused Russia of deliberately blowing it up. The Russians deny they did it. But Moscow has a seamless track record of lying and most western countries are blaming Russia. The EU called it another Russian act of “barbaric aggression”.

A vastly outnumbered and outgunned Ukrainian military has performed so astonishingly well by employing much guile and skilful deception. Kyiv is certainly not going to telegraph to Moscow when Ukraine’s big push to reclaim Russian-occupied territory will begin.

It is very possible that the current intensification in fighting is Ukrainian probing for Russian weaknesses with the final decisions about where and when to attack as yet undetermined.

Kyiv has been forming new military units and training thousands of soldiers in preparation for such an assault.

Alongside the massive aid being provided, a feeling evolved among some of Ukraine’s Western supporters that the flow of weapons to Kyiv could not be sustained so lavishly unless Ukraine demonstrated it could use these resources effectively.

So a certain pressure built up in Kyiv to launch a counteroffensive that would inflict significant defeats on the Kremlin's military and liberate Russian-occupied territory.

However, the Ukrainian military was never going to expend the lives of its men and women to launch a premature major assault in order to satisfy others’ expectations.

On Sunday, I visited a large Ukrainian base where an infantry battalion, only formed four months ago from predominantly fresh conscripts, was making preparations to move out at short notice.

The mood in Ukraine is a pulsating mix of anticipation, apprehension, excitement, some fear and a solemn knowledge that many more of the country’s bravest and best may soon die. At the military base those feelings are amplified.

The battalion colonel, who only used his first name, Vitaliy, had been a professional soldier between 1994-2004 and later became an IT specialist focusing on solar energy businesses. He served again in 2014 when Russia first launched its invasion and reported again for duty on 24 February last year – the day Russia launched its mass assault on Ukraine.

He said there would never be a perfect time to send people off into battle and he would have preferred a longer training period for his 600 soldiers. He is confident senior military commanders will initially give his troops support roles rather than flinging them headlong into frontline battles.

Deception and guile were pivotal elements of Ukraine’s surprise offensive last autumn in the northeast Kharkiv region which expelled Russians from huge swathes of territory.

Operations that the Ukrainian forces have certainly considered include using their newly-acquired modern and powerful tanks to punch a way through Russian lines in the south to the Black Sea and thus cut Moscow’s land route from Russia to occupied Crimea.

Ukrainians may want to exploit the bitter differences between Russia’s regular army and the Wagner mercenaries which have left Russian forces in Bakhmut, the site of this war’s longest and bloodiest battle, in a precarious position and possibly vulnerable to being surrounded.

Another daring option would be for Ukrainian forces to go into Russian territory, say adjoining its Kharkiv region, to attack from behind heavy Russian defences built with the expectation of an assault from Ukrainian territory. Anti-Putin Russian volunteer forces coordinating with Ukraine have already created a beachhead there.

Ukraine has warned that the forthcoming battle, whatever shape it takes, is unlikely to yield an all-out victory for Kyiv. As long as Russian president Vladimir Putin remains alive, he will keep the war going as a matter of his own personal survival. He doesn’t care how many of his countrymen continue to die.

Ukrainians hope events on the battlefield might have enough impact to precipitate change in Russia that removes Putin, although they know the chances of that are slim.

Ukrainians have no option other than to continue to fight because the murders, rape, torture, child kidnapping and other atrocities the Russians have been perpetrating everywhere in Ukraine are a stark reminder of what would happen to the entire country if Moscow was victorious.

What Ukrainians do hope is that the huge, heartbreaking sacrifices their military will have to make in the forthcoming weeks and months will mean that their country’s allies will continue to support Ukraine and will provide the equipment – including F16 fighters – to gain a victory.

And that eventually Ukraine will gain Nato membership, or equivalently robust bilateral security guarantees, to ensure their country is never again hostage to Russia’s barbarism.