More low-income voters backed Tories than Labour for the first time in 2019 election, research finds

Anti-poverty think tank now calls on government to concentrate on helping deprived areas hit hard by Covid-19, writes Jon Sharman

‘Both parties have inverted their traditional support base,’ say researchers (Getty/PA)

Boris Johnson’s landslide electoral victory last year was achieved with significant help from low-income voters, new analysis has found.

The Conservatives managed to create a 15-point lead over Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour among poorer Britons in 2019 – and were even more popular among that group than among wealthier people.

A report commissioned by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF) concluded that “the Conservatives are no longer the party of the rich, while Labour is no longer the party of the poor”.

It continued: ”The Labour Party that Sir Keir Starmer recently became leader of is today just as popular among the wealthy as it is among those on low incomes. Both parties have inverted their traditional support base.”

Researchers Matthew Goodwin, of the University of Kent, and Oliver Heath, from Royal Holloway, University of London, examined evidence from the British Election Study which found that in 2019, 45.4 per cent of low-income voters backed the Conservatives, with 30.6 per cent backing Labour – the first time such a switch had been recorded.

Among high-income voters the figures were 40 per cent for the Tories and 30.8 per cent for Labour. Mr Johnson’s promise to “level up” the nation, combined with his support for Brexit, helped persuade voters to ditch Mr Corbyn, the pair found.

Professor Goodwin added that both main parties would need to court poorer communities, who have been hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic, in any future election. “Low-income voters remain crucial and their votes are likely to remain volatile as the country moves out of the coronavirus crisis.”

The JRF, an anti-poverty think tank, called for the government’s next stage of economic support post-Covid-19 to concentrate on maintaining spending power, and focus job creation in areas most likely to see a rise in the unemployment rate as Rishi Sunak’s furlough scheme is wound down.

Ministers should also increase investment in basic, digital and vocational skills, improve in-work training and provide extra money for public transport, the group said.

Official figures showed in May that deprived areas had suffered Covid-19 death rates double those in wealthier areas. The story was the same this month, the Office of National Statistics said.

The government is facing separate demands to improve its apprenticeship system, following research that showed people from disadvantaged backgrounds were being squeezed out of competition.

An apprenticeship levy on firms has skewed the system in favour of those more able to pay, the Social Mobility Commission (SMC) watchdog said, adding: “The main beneficiaries of apprenticeships are the people who do not need them.”

Research on its behalf, carried out by London Economics, found poorer people were less likely to be chosen for apprenticeships and that, if they did secure a placement, it was normally in a less lucrative sector.

Just 13 per cent of degree-level apprenticeships, the fastest growing and most expensive apprenticeship option, go to disadvantaged apprentices, experts said.

Steven Cooper, deputy co-chairman of the SMC, said: “The apprenticeship levy, introduced in 2017, has disproportionately funded higher-level apprenticeships for learners from more advantaged communities, rather than those from disadvantaged socio-economic backgrounds who would benefit more.”

The Independent has contacted the Treasury for comment.