UK’s record-breaking heatwave will be average summer by 2035, Met Office says

Scientists say findings serve as urgent reminder of the need for countries to go beyond warming targets of 1.5°C

The record-breaking heatwave experienced across Europe this summer will be considered “average” by 2035, even if countries meet climate commitments agreed under the 2015 Paris Agreement, a new study warns.

Research by the Met Office Hadley Centre, commissioned by the Climate Crisis Advisory Group (CCAG), found that, according to current predictions, an average summer in central Europe will be over 4C hotter by 2100 than it was in the pre-industrial era.

The research comes after swathes of Europe were gripped by blistering heatwaves over the past few months, with temperatures well into the high 30s for days on end.

Almost all of France was subjected to water use restrictions due to drought, along with large parts of England and Wales. Earlier this month France experienced its third heatwave of the summer, during which thousands of people were evacuated from their homes because of wildfires.

Spain is also in the grip of a “crippling” drought with crops such as avocados and olives affected. Along with Portugal, the countries are facing their driest conditions in 1,200 years, and more than 1,000 people have reportedly died in relation to the excessive heat this summer.

In the UK, the temperature exceeded 40°C for the first time in July. Since then drought has been declared in several regions and hosepipe bans implemented to shore-up waning water supplies.

For their study, scientists examined temperature data for the past 170 years. The analysis looked at how rapidly rising temperatures are changing across Europe and tracked observed average summer temperatures since 1850 and compared them to future predictions.

They say the findings serve as an urgent reminder of the need for countries to go well beyond their nationally determined contributions pledged under the Paris Agreement, which aims to limit global warming to under 1.5C.

Sir David King, chair of the Climate Crisis Advisory Group, said: “The science is clear that extreme weather currently faced across the world is at least in large part a consequence of human-induced climate change.

“The data released by the Met Office today shows that, even if countries meet their commitments to reduce emissions they have made so far, the situation is still set to get worse, with weather in Europe predicted to become even more extreme than seen this summer. “

He added: “This data doesn’t fully account for the instability of the Arctic, which we now know is a global tipping point, which that could have major cascading consequences for the entire planet.

“One thing is abundantly clear, and that is that countries across the world must not only meet their NDCs, but voluntarily look to increase them. The time for ambitious, urgent action is now. It is only through the mitigative measures of Reduce, Remove and Repair, pursued with equal vigour and urgency, that we can hope to move away from the path to disaster we’re currently set on and achieve a manageable future for humanity.”

Professor Peter Stott, from the Met Office Hadley Centre, said: “In the aftermath of the 2003 European heatwave, which is estimated to have killed over 70,000 people, I predicted that such temperatures, so exceptional at the time, would become the norm under continued emissions.

“That prediction has now been realised. The risks of extreme weather, including fires, drought and flash floods, will keep increasing rapidly unless emissions of greenhouse gases are reduced substantially.”