Starmer’s Labour could be heading for 100-seat majority, polling guru warns Tories

Labour ‘very clearly’ favourite to win election after poorly-received mini-Budget, says John Curtice

Labour is “very clearly” the favourite to win the next general election and is heading for a landslide majority of more than 100, polling guru Sir John Curtice has said.

Speaking at the Conservative Party conference in Birmingham Prof Curtice said Sir Keir Starmer party’s was, based on current numbers, on course for a “three-figure majority”.

If confirmed in the ballot expected in 2024, this would be the largest advantage for any political party since at least 2001, when Tony Blair scooped a majority of 167 over William Hague’s Tories, and would far outstrip Boris Johnson’s margin of 80 in 2019.

Curtice told Conservative activists that Labour had enjoyed an average nine-point lead over the Tories in polls prior to the 23 September mini-Budget.

But Starmer’s party extended its lead to an average of 23 points following the poorly-received “fiscal event”, based on polls carried out on Wednesday.

Sir John said the public doubted the “fairness” and the “effectiveness” of the tax-cutting mini-Budget.

“The fiscal announcement itself was not received well by the electorate,” he said.

But the market turmoil added to the “very serious electoral damage” to the Tory party’s standing over the past week, he said. Truss is now “just as unpopular” as Boris Johnson, he added.