Inside Politics: No 10 on tenterhooks for US election result

Downing Street officials are thought to be in two minds about their desired outcome, writes Adam Forrest

Donald Trump and Boris Johnson at G7 summit

God help us all. Just when you thought the demon had been defeated, he comes roaring back once again. Donald Trump – like the monster in scary movies – has climbed up from the cliff edge and made the US election too close to call. Trump has prematurely claimed he’s already won, but it’s come down to a final few states to decide on the fate of the free world. Boris Johnson has some congratulating and ingratiating to do so the UK is on sure footing for a transatlantic trade deal – just as soon as he knows who wins. The PM is also promising “light” at the end of our looming lockdown tunnel.

Inside the bubble

Our political commentator Andrew Grice on what to look out for today:

The US election result and Covid restrictions are likely to dominate PMQs. MPs will approve a four-week lockdown in England, but all eyes will be on the number of Tory MPs who vote against, as well as those who issue a “thus far, no further” warning not to extend it beyond 2 December. Elsewhere, the science select committee will question Kate Bingham, chair of the vaccine taskforce – who raised eyebrows by discussing progress with a US venture capital conference.

Daily briefing

THE NARROWING PATH: It doesn’t look good for Joe Biden. Donald Trump is projected to have won the crucial states of Texas, Florida and Ohio – while the race remains too close to call in Georgia and North Carolina. Biden has at least taken Arizona, and must now hope at least two of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin also break his way. The Democrat tried to cheer up his supporters by stating: “Keep the faith guys, we’re going to win this.” Trump, meanwhile, claimed he was on course to win almost all of the swing states. “As far as I’m concerned we already have won it,” Trump said – alleging fraud and vowing to take it to the Supreme Court if necessary. Pundits have expressed their amazement at how badly the polls underestimated Trump support, once again. “This is looking a little bit right now like a replay of 2016,” said former Bill Clinton adviser George Stephanopoulos.

FRIENDS REUNITED? What does it mean for Boris Johnson – the man the president once called “Britain’s Trump” and a “good friend”? One senior politician with experience of dealing with both Trump’s White House and Johnson, told the BBC that No 10 are still in two minds about what they want to happen. “It’s short term, versus long term,” the source said – suggesting a Trump win was good for the PM’s immediate future by boosting the likelihood of a trade deal, though it would also make his life more difficult and unpredictable in the years ahead. The current US Ambassador Robert “Woody” Johnson claimed a transatlantic trade agreement would happen regardless of the final outcome. “I’m confident our countries can get this done no matter what happens.” Foreign secretary Dominic Raab refused to condemn on Trump’s despotic claim to have already won the election.

LIGHT MY WAY: As MPs prepare to vote through the England-wide lockdown today, chief medical officer Chris Whitty admitted the four-week curbs would be “economically and socially destructive”. Defending the strategy in front the science committee, Whitty also admitted winter Covid deaths are unlikely to hit the 4,000-a-day level predicted in Sage’s worst-case scenario. Anti-lockdown Tories have also seized on encouraging King’s College London data suggesting the R rate has fallen back down to around 1.1. Rebel MPs are demanding Johnson now shows some estimates of the economic hit the shutdown will cause. The PM tried to cheer up his cabinet by claiming he sees “light ahead” – hailing the trial of rapid testing in Liverpool. “We now have a system of mass testing,” he boasted a bit presumptuously. “You would think we are going to sprinkle these tests around like fairy dust and the virus will disappear,” Professor Gabriel Scally told The Independent.

BOUNCE WITH ME: Will Scotland get furlough payments if Nicola Sturgeon wants to go into lockdown? Rishi Sunak’s allies have said he is being “bounced” into stumping up the cash by Johnson – who is keen all parts of the UK get the same support as England. Sources close to the chancellor told The Times that the Treasury still needs to “iron out” the mechanics before announcing anything. Sturgeon is still demanding “clarity” on whether furlough money for Scottish firms would continue beyond 2 December if lockdown came in later. Meanwhile, The Telegraph is reporting that ministers are considering cutting quarantine to just five days for holidaymakers and business travellers. The government has made one thing clear: the ban on takeaway alcohol sales by pubs during lockdown will be ditched. Booze can be ordered online or by phone and text. “I am delighted that the government has listened,” said Nik Antona, head of the Campaign for Real Ale.

SOUND THE ALERT: As if we didn’t have enough to worry about. The UK’s terrorism threat level has been upgraded from “substantial” to “severe” – meaning security chiefs believe an attack is likely, but there’s no specific intelligence of an imminent incident. It follows Monday night’s shooting attack in Vienna, in which four people were killed. Home secretary Priti Patel said the British public should be “alert but not alarmed … This is a precautionary measure following the horrific events of the last week”. Elsewhere, a British company has been caught up in some international high drama. The Hertfordshire-based Purple Surgical had promised to deliver £45m worth of medical-grade face masks to the government in April. But the firm has claimed it was defrauded by an offshore firm based in the British Virgin Islands, and is now suing, after the protective equipment failed to materialise.

STUCK IN THE MIDDLE WITH YOU: Deep breaths everyone. Negotiators Michel Barnier and David Frost have taken a pause after a week of Brexit trade talks in Brussels, but are set to recommend further discussions in London this weekend. The two sides are yet to reach agreements on any of the big areas. One EU diplomat told Reuters they remain especially “stuck” on fishing quotas. Meanwhile, Germany’s central bank said the country is the most popular destination for banks quitting London because of Brexit. Bundesbank said they expected the UK’s exit would lead to £610bn arriving in assets and 2,500 new jobs in Germany. In another grim development, police admitted they are scrambling to save details of suspected criminals in case a vital database is “switched off” by a no-deal Brexit. Thousands of names are being hurriedly “double keyed” into the Interpol system, Richard Martin, the Met’s deputy assistant commissioner revealed.

On the record

“Amid the uncertain gloom of November, I see light ahead and I’m absolutely certain that we will have better days before us.”

Boris Johnson tries his best to gee up cabinet.

From the Twitterati

“Whatever happens … the fact that this election is competitive even after the last four years will be a stain on our country forever.”

Brian Klaas, leading expert on despotism, finds the closeness of the US contest significant…

“Liberalism is in bigger trouble than we thought.”

…and so does Matthew Goodwin, leading expert on populism.

Essential reading

Denis Macshane, The Independent: A Joe Biden loss will mark the end of the 1968 generation’s political influence

Vince Cable, The Independent: Why I am opposed to a second lockdown

Rafael Behr, The Guardian: Johnson and Trump have shown why countries need leaders, not celebrities

Margaret O’Mara, The New York Times: Why the social media rage machine won’t stop – whoever wins

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