Jo Swinson could lead the Lib Dems back into government

On every measure, the Lib Dems are now doing well, having recovered from the trauma of 2015, when they were almost wiped out

She is unmarked by the scars of coalition and well placed to take the party to its next stage (Getty)

Jo Swinson is a lucky general. She became leader of the Liberal Democrats when they were at their strongest since going into government nine years ago, and after a four-year exile in the wilderness.

Perhaps it was not all luck. She decided not to run against Vince Cable for the leadership when she came back to the House of Commons in the 2017 election. She seemed to be passing up a good chance to lead the party, but she might not have beaten Cable, who was elected unopposed.

And now she takes over as a new leader, less marked by the scars of coalition government, and well placed to take the party to its next stage. She is not a totally fresh face: she was a minister in the Conservative-led coalition, and so Labour and the Scottish Nationalists assail her for voting for the bedroom tax and the tripling of tuition fees. These assaults seem to have less effect on her than on Cable, though, partly because she was less visible, being out of parliament 2015-17.

A focus group conducted for Lord Ashcroft, the Tory peer who loves opinion research, found that Lib Dem voters in the Lib Dem target seat of St Ives had no idea who the new leader was. “I think they’re male,” said one participant. No. “Has she got short hair?” No. It’s Jo Swinson, they were told. “Well, she hasn’t made much of an impact if she’s new. I’ve never bloody heard of her.”

For many voters, this means she has the huge advantage of being able to sell the simple message that the party is against Brexit. On a basic level, a young, female leader seems far from the male-dominated Cameron-Clegg coalition and its austerity.

On every measure, the Lib Dems are now doing well, having recovered from the trauma of 2015, when they were almost wiped out. They were reduced from 56 seats to eight. They gained four seats in 2017 – one of them Swinson’s. Last year they lost one as Stephen Lloyd, MP for Eastbourne, gave up the Lib Dem whip in order to keep his promise to his constituents that he would vote to leave the EU.

But Cable positioned the party increasingly boldly in the opposite direction, as the natural home for voters who wanted to reverse the result of the EU referendum. And behind the scenes he worked quietly on his friendship with Chuka Umunna.

The first campaign lifted the Lib Dems in the opinion polls when Theresa May was forced to postpone Brexit in March, while Jeremy Corbyn tried to keep Labour as the party for both Remain and Leave voters. The Lib Dems were rewarded with second place in the European parliament election in May.

Then in June Umunna joined the party, inheriting Cable’s post as Treasury spokesperson (what the party calls “the Lib Dem shadow chancellor”). His was the first of five defections. With a by-election win last month and another MP expected to defect to the Lib Dems at the party’s annual conference this weekend, this brings Swinson’s parliamentary strength to 18.

Now the party is poised, having positioned itself as best it can until the Brexit crisis resolves itself. Swinson joined Labour and the Scottish Nationalists in refusing Boris Johnson’s challenge of an early election, even though, like Nicola Sturgeon, she could have expected to gain seats.

If Johnson can get a deal through parliament – with the vote of Norman Lamb, the Lib Dem MP who has joined Stephen Kinnock’s group of Labour MPs who are now prepared to vote for a tweaked version of Theresa May’s deal – the Brexit landscape will change again.

Then Swinson may come under pressure from her members to make the Lib Dems the party of “rejoin”.

But if Johnson fails to get Britain out of the EU, Swinson can go on stealing Remainer voters from Corbyn, and the Lib Dems can expect to do well in a general election, whenever it comes. If the votes fall divided, as they did in 2010, and produce a hung parliament, she could lead the party back into government.

Unless, of course, the Lib Dems lose East Dunbartonshire, one of their four Scottish seats. That is Swinson’s constituency, and the Scottish National Party is confident of winning it back.