Stream Wars is the business blockbuster everyone wants to watch. Who’s going to win?

America’s entertainment empires are striking back at Netflix. They won’t all emerge unscathed from the battle for viewers’ subs, says James Moore

The House of Mouse has made a big bet on streaming (Getty)

Stream Wars: The Entertainment Empires Strike Back is coming to a PC, tablet or mobile phone near you. Where your money goes will dictate which multimillion-dollar CEO ends up getting a medal from Princess Leia (think back to the cringeworthy end of A New Hope after Luke blew up the Death Star) and which ends up getting in frozen carbonite alongside Han Solo.

It’s very early days for making predictions but at the cost of making myself a hostage to fortune and every Twitter troll with access to a keyboard, I think we can put the contenders into three loose groups based on their chances.

My assessments may surprise you. But let me make my case before you line up with Boris Johnson and the Brexit Party (probably) by declaring me the worst business commentator in the British media.

Group 1: Locks

Disney

The House of Mouse has made a big bet on streaming. It was the driver for the $71bn merger with Rupert Murdoch’s Fox, and that’s before factoring in the set-up and marketing costs. Disney will make it pay. For a start, its content is second to none. It has Star Wars, it has Marvel, it has Pixar, it has Frozen, I mean, you name it...

In addition to an unbeatable back catalogue of much-loved favourites, it has a bunch of new shows to tempt subscribers and has been taking advantage of the opportunities it has to promote the service through its existing channels (the anchors on ABC’s Monday Night Football were heard eulogising about Star Wars spin-off The Mandalorian). In the US, subscribers can bundle Disney Plus along with its existing Hulu streaming service and ESPN Plus for just $12.99. Verizon Wireless users can get a year of it for free. UK viewers mightn’t get a deals like those but at a predicted £6.99 when it arrives, it will still be cheaper than Netflix.

Amazon

What you need to remember about Prime Video is that while the others are all playing some version of football, Amazon is playing baseball. Or cricket

Prime Video is just part of a suite of services available to Amazon Prime subscribers, who also get free delivery, shopping deals, a selection of music, a Kindle lending library, photo storage.

Netflix no longer looks like the sure thing it once did and it’s sure burning a lot of cash

It’s part of a shop window designed to draw you into Jeff Bezos’s eco-system where there are a host of add-ons you can buy. As such, there’s a very different dynamic at work to what’s going on than with the more pure play entertainment companies. Nonetheless, Amazon has proven that it has the ability to produce hit shows either on its own (The Marvellous Mrs Maisel, The Boys, Transparent) or in collaboration with others (Good Omens with the BBC). The movies have been hit and miss, which is true of just about everyone not named Marvel, but Manchester by the Sea took home a couple of Oscars. What helps Amazon is that the company isn’t going to live or die by streaming and has more resources than it knows what do with. It’ll be around for as long as Bezos wants it to be.

Group 2: Should do OK but not without questions to answer

Netflix

Before you say “really?”, consider that Netflix has got used to having it all its own way and history hasn’t been kind to tech pioneers. Remember AltaVista? MySpace? Friends Reunited?

Of course, streaming isn’t search or social media. There’s room for multiple offerings.

But Netflix no longer looks like the sure thing it once did and it’s sure burning a lot of cash. Price rises have, meanwhile, dented subscriber numbers in the US and content producers like Disney that once flocked to its banner have been taking back their properties to fill their own streamers. Netflix has sunk money into its own content, but its recent bout of cancellation-itis irked fans of shows that got the chop (included this devotee of Brit Marling’s wonderfully weird The OA). Big super-brands fail all the time. Netflix contributed to the demise of Blockbuster, for example. In its favour, the streaming pioneer now has a huge library of its own content, plenty of hit properties and a truly enormous budget. But its summertime is ending and it’s facing a fight. How it responds will be crucial.

Warner Media/HBO Max

Part of AT&T’s Warner Media, HBO is a big-name brand in the US, and while Warner doesn’t quite match up with Disney for content, it doesn’t do half badly what with DC Entertainment, Castle Rock Entertainment, Cartoon Network, Hannah Barbera CNN, and Crunchyroll (anime) among others. I could go on. HBO subscribers will get access through their existing subscriptions with the hope that they’ll move across when the service launches in the US next year. International territories will follow, although in some the company plans to work with existing partners. It’s weakness? Running behind the likes of Disney doesn’t help.

Group 3: Causes for concern?

Apple

It’s cheap, which isn’t something you can usually say about anything to do with Apple, given how its devices have historically been at the premium end of the market. It has a big fat budget ($6bn or so) and it has lured a slew of star names (Oprah Winfrey, Jason Momoa, Jennifer Aniston, Reese Witherspoon). It’s also limited: just nine shows to start with and reviews have been mixed. All its rivals have vast libraries for subscribers to dip into. On the plus side, Apple is an enormous company with resources to match. This is an important part of its strategy of pushing into the sale of services not least because people are changing their phones less frequently.

Did I mentioned that you get a year’s free if you buy a new one?

Still, considering what it’s up against and what it’s offering this service has more of a question mark against it than some of the others even though it is, you know, Apple.

BritBox

ITV is driving this streaming service, which enjoys the somewhat lukewarm support of the BBC (it has a stake). It’s a niche operation that has been marketing UK produced content across the Atlantic for some time now. On these shores it’s almost like Apple’s service in reverse in that the offer majors on its two broadcasters’ library. Original content is planned but it’s not clear when, and the budget is tiny when compared to its US rivals. For now, additions will come through shows ending up there after they’ve finished their runs on the ITV Player and the BBC’s iPlayer. It would stand a much better chance with the full throated support of Auntie, not to mention Channel 4. ITV deserves some credit for at least trying to make a go of a uniquely British service but it remains to be seen whether it will fly.

Peacock

Silly name, no? This is the vehicle of Comcast, the parent company of Sky and NBCUniversal in the US. Here’s a question for the company: why, when you already have some big, well-known entertainment brands, are you not using one of them? It’s not short of content, although maybe it lacks for a knockout? Here’s where it gets really interesting: there’s been talk that Comcast could seek to overcome its issues, and standout from the crowd, by making its service free to those willing to put up with ads. If it does this, and it makes it work, you can bet others will follow that lead especially if they’re struggling to draw in subscribers.

Others

Sure, everyone wants a piece of the streaming pie and there’s always the option of going for a niche offer (like BritBox). Will this list be longer or shorter in a year or two’s time? The punters will decide. Various outlets have been making stabs at how much subscribing to them all will cost. The numbers are eye-popping. And this is just at the launch when they’re offering deals to tempt people in. The winners of the streaming war are going to start to start hiking their prices when the field thins out. Of that there is little doubt.