The stats behind Liverpool and Man City’s contrasting title tactics

The Premier League’s last two winners are racing out in front again this campaign, but the strengths of Jurgen Klopp and Pep Guardiola’s sides are derived from very different points, writes Lawrence Ostlere

(Liverpool FC via Getty Images)

It would be a little premature to label the Premier League a two-horse race, especially given the unpredictability the pandemic is suddenly throwing into the midseason mix, but what is undeniable is that Chelsea’s recent slump has let a gap form between them and a familiar duo clear at the top.

Manchester City and Liverpool have been the best two teams in England over the past few years and right now they are together out front, matching each other stride for stride, each with six wins from their last six games. And as they stand toe to toe preparing for the home straight, what is intriguing is that this not just a battle of Liverpool vs City, or Klopp vs Guardiola, but a contest between one relentless attack and one flawless defence.

Even taking into account City’s 7-0 thrashing of Leeds this week, Liverpool’s attacking numbers are in another stratosphere from the rest. They have scored 48 goals to City’s 40, hold the two top scorers in the league in Mohamed Salah and Diogo Jota, and have the top two assist-makers too in Trent Alexander-Arnold and Salah again.

After a dip last season they are a force of nature once more. Only Marcelo Bielsa’s unique Leeds team allow (fractionally) fewer opposition passes per defensive action than Liverpool – in other words, only Leeds are more intense and aggressive high up the pitch.

It is a style of football full of inherent risk. At half-time in that compelling 2-2 draw between Liverpool and City at Anfield in October, after City had controlled the first 45 minutes, Klopp later revealed he had told his team to be more “brave”, to be courageous enough to leave space behind in order to force a mistake from the City player about to receive the ball. But it is that risk which brings reward: Liverpool were transformed in the second half against City, when Salah scored arguably the goal of the season so far in a performance which epitomised their strengths - fast, intense, direct, and punishingly precise in the final third.

It is a style of play so effective that it allows opponents no foothold in the game and creates utter dominance of the ball. Liverpool have made the most through balls, attempted the most crosses and taken the most shots out of any team in the league so far this season.

There are many stats that sum up the different approaches of Klopp and Guardiola, but one that neatly encapsulates the contrast is their percentage of passes successfully completed in the final third. City’s is 83% this season, more than any other side. Liverpool’s is 73%, far closer to the league average of 69%. When Liverpool reach threatening positions, they are prepared to gamble.

Then again, it is this element of caution which makes City defensively imperious. Their expected goals against of only 9.88 is far lower than Liverpool’s 14.49 or Chelsea’s 17.28: essentially they are conceding around a miserly half a goal’s worth of chances per match. Trying to counterattack against a Guardiola side has always been a fool’s errand: Fernandinho may be the standard-bearer of disrupting counterattacks but every Guardiola midfielder is instilled with the instincts to stop a break at all costs.

This more considered approach is why City have more players behind the ball than Liverpool when they make a mistake – and they make fewer of them. City’s total passing accuracy of 90% is the highest in the league by some distance. Where an ambitious but errant pass might be met with hearty applause by Klopp, Guardiola is more likely to scowl.

None of which is to say Liverpool are defensively suspect or City lack thrust in attack. These are the two outstanding teams so far and they are almost complete in the way they dominate each match. But as we approach the halfway point of the season, the two leading protagonists have distinctly different centres of gravity, and it provides an intriguing tactical subplot to this era-defining rivalry.