Inside Politics: Electoral action

Voters head to the polls in Chester and a new report counts the cost of Brexit, writes Matt Mathers

(PA)

Hello there, I’m Matt Mathers and welcome to The Independent’s Inside Politics newsletter.

We have some electoral action today as voters head to the polls in Chester. A new report counts the cost of Brexit on food prices.

Inside the bubble

Commons action gets underway at 9.30am with DCMS questions. After that Commons leader Penny Mordaunt has the weekly business statement just before 11 am, followed by any other ministerial statements. Later MPs will deal with the legislation for a bill which adds Princess Anne and Prince Edward to the list of royals who can deputise for the King. There will also be a back bench-led debate to mark World Aids Day.

Daily briefing

Chester test

Rishi Sunak faces his first electoral test as prime minister today as voters head to the polls for a byelection in Chester. The contest was triggered by the resignation of Christian Matheson. The former Labour MP faced complaints of “serious sexual misconduct”, which were upheld by parliament’s watchdog.

Labour has taken the City of Chester seat in the past three outings, securing a majority of over 6,000 in 2019. The Tories, who last won the affluent constituency in 2010, came in second at the last vote, with the Lib Dems coming in third.

While Labour is expected to win again, the ballot could serve as a handy barometer of public opinion for both parties following the defenestration of Boris Johnson, Liz Truss’s disastrous mini-Budget and the ongoing cost of living crisis as Christmas fast approaches.

Sam Dixon, Labour’s candidate, has described the by-election as “our poll of polls on Rishi Sunak”. “We need to send a really clear message to the Conservative government,” she told the Labour List website. Meanwhile, Liz Wardlaw, the NHS nurse batting for the Tories, has said she can offer “real life experience” in the role.

Win or lose, it is probably fair to say Sunak has far more pressing concerns pretty much everywhere he looks. Some 10,000 ambulance workers voted to strike yesterday, joining a raft of other public sector workers in choosing to take industrial action over pay and conditions.

The ballot results came as Royal Mail workers, university lecturers and sixth form college staff took to picket lines at scores of locations across the UK in one of the biggest days of industrial action of recent years. More strikes are to come, raising the spectre of a Christmas of chaos.

(PA)

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Brexit freedoms latest

Has Brexit made us poorer? This is a question that has come into much sharper focus as we continue to feel the effects of a number of shocks to the economy, including the Covid recovery, soaring inflation, Vladimir Putin’s brutal war in Ukraine and the aforementioned Budget shambles.

While each of these events has undoubtedly played a part in declining income, so too has the decision to sever ties with the world’s largest trading bloc - in food costs at least, according to experts based at the London School of Economics.

Leaving the bloc has added an average of £210 to Britons’ food costs over the two years to the end of 2021, according to a study by the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP). Richard Davies, professor at Bristol University and co-author of the study, said Brexit’s non-tariff trade barriers were a key factor behind the highest inflation rates in 40 years.

“In leaving the EU, the UK swapped a deep trade relationship with few impediments to trade for one where a wide range of checks, forms and steps are required before goods can cross the border,” he said. Prof Davis added: “Firms faced higher costs and passed most of these onto consumers. Over the two years to the end of 2021, Brexit increased food prices by around 6 per cent overall.”

Today’s cartoon

See all of The Independent’s daily cartoons here

(Dave Brown)

On the record

At PMQs, Starmer attacks Sunak on tax breaks for private schools.

“Is that £6m of taxpayers’ money better spent on rifle ranges in Winchester or driving up standards in Southampton?”

From the Twitterati

Jim Pickard, Financial Times chief politics correspondent, on Conservative Party attack ad.

“Can’t believe I have to spell this out but debt, inflation, strikes and migration are all currently at their highest level for what 30 or more years?”

Essential reading

• Sean O’Grady, The Independent: Even Conservative Party members are very unhappy with this government
• Nadine White, The Independent: Is anyone really surprised by racist remarks at the palace?
• Martin Kettle, The Guardian: British foreign policy is in flux – we need more than Sunak’s pragmatic blandness
• Michael Schuman, The Atlantic: China’s zero tolerance for Xi’s Covid restrictions

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