The eastern European display of solidarity shows Putin has few friends left

Nato and the EU have shown common purpose over Ukraine, but there are some weak links as Sean O’Grady writes

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and Deputy Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski, Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala and Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Jansa (UKRAINE PRESIDENCY/AFP via Getty)

Russia has few firm friends left in the world.

On the motion at the United Nations General Assembly condemning the war in Ukraine, only Belarus, Eritrea, North Korea and Syria could bring themselves to back Russia and vote against the resolution. Even traditionally friendly states with little interest in human rights, such as China, Iran and Iraq, chose to abstain. More shamefully, some leading democratic nations including India and South Africa, presumably with an eye to some future strategic advantage, also sat on the diplomatic fence. But President Putin is essentially friendless, and all the more so since he began bombing civilians and using weapons such as cluster bombs.

By contrast, Ukraine has friends everywhere, though not always willing to answer its desperate calls for military assistance. Even as missiles are flying around, staunchly loyal leaders from other ex-communist states in Eastern Europe are flying into Kyiv: Poland’s Mateusz Morawiecki , Pietr Fiala of the Czech Republic and Slovenia’s Janez Jansa Zelensky and Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal are all in town to meet President Volodymyr Zelensky and his prime minister, Denys Shmyhal.

No doubt intelligence will be exchanged, military dispositions shared and lethal assistance for Ukrainian forces pledged. Yet the main purpose of this show of solidarity is just that — three leaders of EU member states risking their necks, just as Zelensky has in his near-besieged capital. It’s unlikely that Vladimir Putin would launch an assassination attack on four of his biggest foes, but he must be tempted. At any rate they made a more impressive quartet than President Macron’s well-meaning but embarrassing attempt to emulate Zelensky by donning jeans, combat gear and stubble in the opulent surroundings of the Elysee Palace.

There seems little reason to doubt the sincerity of the official Polish press release: “The purpose of the visit is to confirm the unequivocal support of the entire European Union for the sovereignty and independence of Ukraine and to present a broad package of support for the Ukrainian state and society.”

Elsewhere, in London, an even more purposeful alliance was rededicating itself. Boris Johnson chaired a meeting of the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF), comprising the UK and the Nordic and Baltic nations, both inside and outside (Finland and Sweden) Nato. Zelensky joined them via video link, another symbol of solidarity.

With the obvious aim of deterring Russian aggression, this northern European security coalition, bringing together representatives from Denmark, Finland, Estonia, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Sweden and Norway. According to the British statement, the leaders “discussed the immediate crisis in Ukraine but also long-term energy security and how they can help Ukraine rebuild again after war.”

“The grouping faces a unique set of threats from Russia, with some members facing aggression on their land borders, in the skies and from the North and Baltic Seas. Many face increasing cyber threats too.” But there will be no “no fly zones”.

Nato has 30 members and the EU has 27, mostly but not all overlapping, but what is remarkable is how much they have pulled together during the crisis and at least attempted to present a common  front and reinforce their formal and informal sense of collective security, ultimately underpinned by the three nuclear powers concerned — the US, France and UK.

The weakest links, though, are matters of concern.

Moldova, for one; it has the misfortune of a border with Ukraine and a Russian-backed separatist mini-state, Transnistria. Smaller and weaker than Romania or Ukraine, it is not a member of the EU or Nato and seems open to the same kind of blackmail that the Russians used on Ukraine before invasion. More to the point, it cannot count on Nato military assistance beyond the potential supply of defensive equipment.

The other weak link is Hungary, where Viktor Orban has spent most of his past decade in power cosying up to Moscow and offending Brussels. Since the Russian invasion, and ahead of elections on 3 April, all of that has gone into reverse and Hungary, Orban and his Fidesz party are backing Ukraine.

However this conflict plays out, Putin’s remaining cronies in Europe may be gone or humiliated, and nervous neutral states such as Finland, Ireland and Sweden may be negotiating Nato membership. It is as if a great closely-knit western alliance based on patriotic democratic values was being formed to deter Russian barbarism. Maybe it should have got going years ago.