What are Boris Johnson’s options to try to regain control of the virus?

The PM has tough decisions to make as the virus continues to surge, writes John Rentoul

Boris Johnson and Matt Hancock in Downing Street (Getty)

The prime minister has “lost control of the virus”, claims Keir Starmer, the Labour leader, who advocates a circuit breaker, a two- to three-week national lockdown, designed to regain that control. As we approach half-term school holiday next week, which will be a form of mini-circuit breaker, what are Boris Johnson’s options?

Stand by last week’s policy

The new three-tier regime came into force only on Wednesday, with new and severe restrictions imposed on the Liverpool city region; and London, Essex, York and some other places were moved from tier 1 to tier 2 only on Saturday.

The prime minister could decide to wait and see whether these restrictions, and the reduction in mixing caused by the half-term holiday, have any effect on the case numbers. The minimum he could do would be to impose tier 3 status on Manchester, either with or without the agreement of Andy Burnham, mayor of Greater Manchester.

Add further restrictions

Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, said last week: “I am not confident – and nor is anybody confident – that the tier 3 proposals … would be enough to get on top of it.” Other people who are “not confident” include Starmer, Manchester’s leaders and a majority of the public who express an opinion. According to yesterday’s BMG poll for The Independent, only 36 per cent trust the prime minister to lead the response to the pandemic, as against 44 per cent who do not.

Tier 3 status, for the worst-affected areas of the country, is intended to allow for further restrictions, although there is only a certain amount that could be done if schools and universities are to remain open: pubs, restaurants, inessential shops and places of worship could be shut altogether.

One further option would be to close schools for an additional week after the half-term holiday, as is happening in Northern Ireland, either in some areas of England or nationally. Although Johnson did accuse Starmer last week of wanting to “yank” children out of schools, which suggests he is against it.

Go for a full temporary national lockdown

This would be embarrassing for the prime minister, but there is a growing chorus for it. Jeremy Hunt, the former health secretary, and Sir John Bell of Oxford University added their voices at the weekend. It would also satisfy Burnham, whose argument seems to be that if Manchester must suffer then so must Cornwall, even if Cornwall has few cases.

However, it is more likely that, if the indicators on the dashboard continue to flash red, in Johnson’s own colourful phrase, he will move more areas up a tier and add further restrictions, so that most of the country is covered by what would be in effect a circuit-breaker. The big question, which he will have to decide soon, preferably before Friday, is whether to extend schools’ half-term holiday.

And the even bigger question is whether any of these restrictions will actually work.