How will record early voting turnout affect the US election result?

Florida shattered its opening day record for early voting, while more than 4.6 million ballots have been cast in Texas already – half of its voter turnout in 2016. But what does this mean for the final result? Sean O’Grady explains

Voters wait in line to cast their early ballots at the Lemon City Branch Library precinct in Miami, Florida (Getty)

Could Joe Biden already be the 46th president of the United States?

Technically, no. Around 50 million of the roughly 140 million Americans eligible to vote have already cast their ballots, either by post or in person (where allowed), and even if they all voted Democrat, Mr Biden would still not become president. 

Of course that’s not quite how it works. The Biden campaign will be hoping that these early votes will be disproportionately Democrat, and “bake in” the commanding poll leads he had in the run up to the first presidential debate on 29 September, and, even more, in the immediate aftermath of the president’s poor performance. Since then, Mr Biden’s lead, nationally and in swing states has been squeezed somewhat, and Donald Trump will have exceeded low expectations in the last debate, for what it’s worth.