Did Dominic Cummings ever know what he was doing?

The prime minister’s chief of staff has a reputation as a tactical genius, but everything just keeps going wrong, writes John Rentoul

(Reuters)

Dominic Cummings’s reputation rests above all on the Vote Leave slogan on the side of the bus: “We send the EU £350m a week.” The Remain side were driven into a fury, denouncing it as untrue, which it was, but the more they denounced it the more they drew attention to one of the core Leave arguments.

Because Cummings’s Leave campaign won the referendum, he was regarded as a tactical genius – and his reputation was sealed by being portrayed by Benedict Cumberbatch in the docudrama of the campaign.

This single example of using the indignation of the other side to his side’s advantage generated the meme on social media in response to every setback for Boris Johnson, for whom Cummings is now chief of staff: “Classic Dom, he’s got them right where he wants them.”

So when the ploy of suspending parliament failed – long before it went to the Supreme Court – and Hilary Benn succeeded in passing his law to prevent a no-deal Brexit on 31 October, some people assumed that this was all part of the greater plan.

“Dom” had the Remainers right where he wanted them, because the prime minister would demand an early election, which he would frame as “parliament against the people”. Johnson would fight as the tribune of the 17.4m who voted to Leave, thwarted by the Remain establishment in parliament.

But that plan failed as well. Labour MPs made it clear to Jeremy Corbyn – who would otherwise have fallen into the trap – that they wouldn’t vote for an early election. They wanted to humiliate Johnson by forcing him to betray Brexit, making him send the letter asking the EU for an extension as specified in the Benn act. Only then would they agree to an election.

At every turn, Cummings seems to have advised Johnson to take the most confrontational course, as if to bring the fight with the opponents of a no-deal Brexit to a head. Thus 21 Conservative MPs were expelled from the party for voting for the Benn bill.

Downing Street officials repeatedly suggested to journalists in off-the-record conversations that Johnson might advise the Queen to withhold the royal assent to the bill, or that he might refuse to abide by it if it became law.

All this, some commentators thought, was designed to provoke indignation among Johnson’s opponents, which would in turn reinforce support for him among those voters who applaud a strong prime minister who is prepared to rattle some of the china in his drive to deliver the decision of the people.

Well, that has all come crashing down now. The Supreme Court verdict was so emphatic that anti-no-dealers’ fears that the prime minister might just “ignore the law” seem misplaced. From Lady Hale’s demeanour, backed by a unanimous judgment, it seems clear that if Johnson tried to do so, he would be in jail by the next morning. And parliament would have made a recommendation to the Queen of his successor by the afternoon.

All of which might reinforce support for Johnson among Leavers, although it has to be remembered that most of the 21 Tory MPs he expelled were soft Leavers who voted for Theresa May’s deal – that is, to leave.

But Johnson and Cummings are not going to be able to call an election on their own terms. If Johnson cannot get a deal through parliament – and Cummings’s confrontational style has made that harder – the prime minister has to quit, or humiliate himself by asking for a Brexit extension.

Dom hasn’t got anyone where he wants them, and it is possible that he never had.