Rishi Sunak’s big problem is Britain is suffering from ‘Tory fatigue’

While his personal poll ratings are by no means poor, public pessimism about the economy and the state of the Conservatives makes reversing his party’s fortunes difficult, writes Keiran Pedley

Rishi Sunak has a tough task on his hands to rekindle his party’s electoral chances (PA Wire)

The recent by-election in Chester showed the scale of the challenge faced by the Conservatives. Labour took the seat with a swing of almost 14 points, suggesting that polls showing Labour significantly ahead are broadly right and the Conservatives are in a big political hole. With a general election soon on the horizon, the question is can they turn it around?

It’s not all bad news for Rishi Sunak. Recent Ipsos polling shows the public are more likely to think he has what it takes to be a good prime minister (42 per cent) than not (34 per cent) and he leads Keir Starmer on who the public think would make the more capable prime minister by 41 per cent to 35 per cent. Meanwhile, there is little to choose between the two leaders on who the public trust to improve the economy – 43 per cent trust Sunak either ‘a great deal’ or ‘a fair amount’, 39 per cent say the same of Starmer.

Yet, despite this, our data shows Labour 21 points ahead of the Conservatives (50 per cent to 29 per cent) in voter preferences. So, what is going on?

One answer might lie in the general pessimistic mood of a nation weary of Covid-19, the effects of war in Ukraine and the rising cost of living. Our latest Ipsos Political Pulse shows 62 per cent of Britons think things are heading in the wrong direction. Meanwhile, our November Ipsos Political Monitor shows 7 in 10 expect the economy to worsen in the next 12 months, with 6 in 10 lacking confidence in the Conservative Party to turn things around.

This lack of faith in the Conservative Party speaks to Sunak’s biggest problem. As much as the public recognise the personal qualities he possesses, the Conservative Party brand is in an entirely different place. For example, when we ask how favourable or unfavourable the public are towards Sunak, we find 29 per cent are favourable and 39 per cent are unfavourable, giving a net score of -10. However, when we ask about the Conservatives, just 20 per cent are favourable and 52 per cent are unfavourable, giving a net score of –32. The Labour Party do not have the same problem. Net favourability towards Starmer is at –6 and for Labour –1, essentially the same.

There appears to be little public confidence that the Conservatives can address the issues that are most important to them. Our Ipsos Issues index shows the economy and rising prices/inflation are the top public concerns, with public services, immigration and the environment also registering strongly.

Yet almost three in four Britons lack confidence the Conservatives will reduce the cost of living (73 per cent) or improve Britain’s public services (74 per cent). Meanwhile, our data shows that Conservative voters are particularly animated by immigration and borders (essentially their top issue with the economy and inflation, yet they lack confidence the government will address the issue how they would like).

Fundamentally, the Conservatives’ problem is that the public appear pessimistic about the state of the country and inclined to hold the Conservatives responsible. For example, our polling shows that whilst the public recognise the impact of Covid, war in Ukraine and other global financial forces on the rising cost of living, they place a great deal of blame of the Conservatives too.

Of the 6 in 10 Britons that do not have confidence that the Conservatives will improve the economy, 78 per cent blame the economic policies of the Conservatives during 12 years in office for where we are today. Just 16 per cent think the Conservatives are fit to govern today, compared to 46 per cent before the last general election.

Sunak’s problem is clear. While his personal poll ratings are by no means poor, public pessimism about the economy and a general sense of "Tory fatigue" makes reversing his party’s fortunes difficult, even if some doubts about Labour persist.

Somehow, Sunak needs to show the public his government can deliver on their priorities around the cost of living and public services, as well as addressing discontent among 2019 Conservative voters on immigration and projecting a sense of "freshness" that warrants voters giving the Tories another term in office. The polls today suggest this is a big ask.

Keiran Pedley is director of politics at Ipsos UK