If Keir Starmer ends up resigning – who would be in the running to become the next Labour leader?

Such are the unsentimental ways of politics that minds are already turning to life after Sir Keir, writes Sean O’Grady. The good news for the party is that it has an unusually strong range of personalities to choose from

The Labour leader, Sir Keir Starmer (Getty Images)

It is ridiculous that the party leader seemingly in most peril from partygate and its associated “-gates” should be Keir Stamer rather than Boris Johnson. A scandal, even.

However, as they say in footballing circles, we are where we are. The charge of hypocrisy hangs around the Labour leader – and it will continue to do so, whatever the Durham police make of his working dinner. Such are the mercenary, unsentimental ways of politics that minds are already turning to life after Sir Keir. The good news for Labour is that it has an unusually strong range of personalities to choose from.

So far as the bookies are concerned, the favourite is Andy Burnham, mayor of Greater Manchester. He’s not even an MP, and thus technically ineligible to stand, but that hasn’t prevented him being priced at 3/1, and the most popular bet right now by some margin.

Burnham has been relatively quiet in recent weeks, not facing a contest himself (he was re-elected last year with two-thirds of the vote), but has been quietly incubating some (arguably) radical ideas. These include nationalising the railways (with far lower fares), proportional representation for the House of Commons, the House of Lords turned into a “senate of the nations and regions”, more devolution in England, and a graduate tax to replace student loans.

He’s a plausible candidate with an appeal of authenticity and executive experience as a cabinet minister under Gordon Brown. He has run for the leadership twice before, so, may be wary of a third bid. But he hasn’t ruled himself out of the running if the party needed him. He made some coded critical remarks after the disappointing 2021 local elections, but not much since. If he was to run he’d need to find a parliamentary seat, such as Wakefield in the forthcoming by-election, where the tussle for the nomination is well under way, or engineer a retirement by a sitting MP. It would require some acrobatics, but where there’s a will…

The second favourite, at 9/1, is Wes Streeting, an unashamedly centrist figure with an unusual gift for debate and a Blair-like instinct for the political middle ground. He has the great benefit of having little association with any of the previous Labour regimes; his problem is that the left fear and loathe him even more than they do Starmer. He also lacks experience. Indeed, at 39, he would be the youngest Labour leader ever, with energy and ambition to match.

Not far behind Streeting is Lisa Nandy, who has grown in confidence remarkably quickly, and is another capable media performer. Another authentic Northerner – like Burnham – she has been credited with presciently advising Starmer to dial down the partygate attacks and concentrate on the cost of living crisis.

The contest, if it does happen, has probably come at a bad time for Angela Rayner. The deputy leader has proved herself a formidable opponent to Johnson in the Commons, and is something of a Labour conference darling, but she is also caught up in “beergate”. The row around whether or not she has sought to distract Johnson in the Commons, though absurd and misogynistic, also didn’t help her chances of succeeding Starmer.

Labour has the widest choice of good candidates for the top job it has has had in decades. All the possible heirs to Jeremy Corbyn, such as Richard Burgon, can be ruled out, even if they had any ability, and there are other potential candidates who’ve not attracted that much attention in the betting markets, such as Rachel Reeves, Yvette Cooper (both about 10/1), and Hilary Benn (at 100/1). Dan Jarvis, MP for Barnsley and former mayor of South Yorkshire, looks an interesting outsider at 33/1. The former army officer has been mulling the best moment for an assault on the leadership for some time.

Remember, as Ed Miliband and Corbyn demonstrated, it isn’t always the favourites who prevail.