What are Labour’s chances of winning the Wakefield by-election?

Labour is yet to win a single by-election from the Conservatives since the 2019 general election but this will be Sir Keir’s biggest chance, writes Ashley Cowburn

The only way is up: Keir Starmer has yet to celebrate any by-election victory where the Conservative incumbent has been toppled (Getty)

The former Tory MP Imran Ahmad Khan – who was found guilty this week of sexually assaulting a 15-year-old – announced on Thursday he would stand down from parliament. The decision triggers a potentially explosive by-election in the West Yorkshire seat of Wakefield.

The date for the vote will be announced when the Conservative chief whip moves the “writ”, a motion to elect a new MP, and is usually held between 21 and 27 days afterwards.

Traditionally a Labour stronghold and held by the party since the 1930s, the Wakefield constituency turned blue at the 2019 general election as Boris Johnson emerged with the biggest Conservative majority for decades.

The former Labour frontbencher Mary Creagh, who first became an MP in 2005 and was elected four times to serve Wakefield, was defeated by 3,358 votes on a catastrophic evening for the party, losing 59 seats across the country.

In the time since the 2019 election, there have been eight parliamentary by-elections, including Hartlepool, a seat where the Conservatives achieved the rare success of winning, as the governing party, from the opposition; an opposition that had held the constituency since 1974.

The Tories have since lost two seats – Chesham and Amersham, and North Shropshire – despite previously having considerable majorities, to the Liberal Democrats.

In the summer of 2021, as speculation surfaced about a possible leadership challenge to Sir Keir, Labour managed to hold onto the constituency of Batley and Spen, but with a greatly reduced vote share on 2019.

The party, however, is yet to celebrate any by-election victory where the Conservative incumbent has been toppled during this parliament. Wakefield, theoretically at least, appears to be Sir Keir’s biggest chance to change this narrative.

With the Tories’ slim majority, it is one of many red-wall constituencies that the Labour leader must win back if he wants to prove he has what it takes to end the Conservatives’ 13-year tenure in No 10.

Overturning Khan’s 2019 victory in Wakefield also requires a swing of 3.73 per cent – roughly a third of the turnaround Labour would need to achieve across the country to win an overall majority in the House of Commons.

With Mr Johnson grappling with the Partygate scandal – becoming the first sitting prime minister to be found to have broken the law – growing concerns over the cost of living crisis, and polls consistently giving Labour the lead over the Conservatives, Sir Keir will be feeling the pressure of having to recapture the seat amid high expectations.

It will undoubtedly be a crucial test for his leadership, but there will also be nerves in Conservative HQ, with a prime minister already facing calls to resign from his own MPs.

With the ongoing Metropolitan Police investigation, the chance of a humiliating set of results in May’s local elections, losing a red wall seat may just be enough to convince more Conservative MPs to submit letters of no confidence to the 1922 Committee chair. It certainly seems set to be a high-stakes by-election for both major Westminster parties.