Has Dominic Raab done enough to keep his job?

Following his evasive performance before MPs, Adam Forrest takes a look at whether the foreign secretary will be the fall guy for failure in Afghanistan

Head scratcher: Raab is questioned on Wednesday (PRU/AFP/Getty)

Ever since he packed up his flip flops and headed home from his now infamous holiday in Crete, Dominic Raab has endured resignation calls from the opposition and gossip about demotion at the next cabinet reshuffle. Will the foreign secretary be “toast” come Boris Johnson’s next shake-up, as Whitehall sources have suggested?

Raab’s 90-minute grilling by MPs about Afghanistan on Wednesday was the ideal chance to defend himself – but the evasive, prickly appearance managed to raise fresh questions about the handling of the crisis and his own political future.

The foreign secretary passed up the chance to apologise for his actions during the Taliban takeover, repeatedly refused to say when he headed off to the Greek island, and blamed faulty intelligence for the failure to spot Kabul’s fall coming.

Asked seven times by SNP’s Stewart McDonald when exactly he went on holiday, Raab sheepishly refused to answer, muttering about statements he had already made before accusing the MP of launching a “partisan political attack”.

Labour said Raab’s appearance at the Foreign Affairs Committee was a “staggering display of incompetence”. The sneering has not been limited to opposition MPs. Conservatives have been also been grumbling about Raab’s recent actions, and will have scrutinised his performance in parliament very closely.

Some will take their cue from influential backbencher Tom Tugendhat, the committee chair who gave the foreign secretary a rough ride. He put the minister on the back foot by reading out details from a previously unrevealed Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) document.

After Raab claimed intelligence had indicated Kabul was “unlikely” to fall this year, Tugendhat pointed out the FDCO’s principal risk report had warned as early as 22 July that the collapse of the Afghan government could happen much more quickly. “Yeah, well, of course, we’re very mindful of that,” replied Raab, shuffling through his papers.

The foreign secretary was also vague on the number of Afghans who had aided the British mission but were unable to get out before the Taliban takeover, saying he was “not confident with any precision” about how many people had been left behind.

Has Raab been lazy in recent months? He told MPs he was well aware of the “caricature” following claims he dismissed Afghanistan as “yesterday’s war” – but denied the idea he had been asleep at the wheel.

He claimed to have held 40 meetings or telephone calls where Afghanistan was on the agenda since mid-March, but didn’t specify whether most of these discussions were held at the action-packed end of the period.

Will his performance have been enough to impress Boris Johnson? The prime minister, whose own work ethic has often been questioned, tends to avoid difficult decisions until they have to be made.

He may wish to wait and see how Raab – now flying out to meet officials in Afghanistan’s next-door neighbours – handles the evacuation efforts from third countries before deciding to put him at the top of his own exit list.

Westminster has been anticipating that the PM would attempt a reshuffle for several months, with the international trade secretary Liz Truss tipped as a possible replacement for Raab.

But reports suggest Johnson will delay the refresh until after the autumn, allowing the current crop of ministers to take the flak for an expected run of bad stories – on Afghanistan, schools and climate change policy – before bringing in fresh blood.

Will Raab get in the neck? As the fall guy for the failure in Afghanistan, he must remain a prime candidate for demotion. His performance before MPs will have done little to persuade top Downing Street officials he is uniquely qualified to carry on in the senior cabinet role.

If Raab is to lose one of the great offices of state, there could be a small consolation: he may get some time to dig out the flip flops again, book tickets for Crete and finally finish his holiday in full.