When might a cabinet reshuffle happen and who could be sacked or promoted?

A major rejig of ministerial posts may be delayed, writes John Rentoul, but who would be the likely winners and losers?

Suella Braverman might be keen to avoid going down with the current cabinet at the next election (Getty/PA)

Rishi Sunak is expected to delay a full cabinet reshuffle until the winter, and to make only minor changes in the next few days. It is reported in The Times that he is considering replacing Ben Wallace, the defence secretary, before the House of Commons returns from its summer recess on 4 September, but that more sweeping changes will wait until after the party conferences in October – or even after the King’s Speech on 7 November.

John Glen, the chief secretary to the Treasury and a strong supporter of the prime minister, is the favourite to succeed Wallace, who has said he will leave parliament at the next election. Claire Coutinho, a junior education minister, is widely believed to be in line for promotion to his job – even though she is only a parliamentary under-secretary of state. Cabinet ministers are usually chosen from the ranks of ministers of state, the next rung down from cabinet level. She too is a conspicuous Rishi loyalist.

These minimal changes may allow a backbencher such as Laura Farris, the MP for Newbury who made a striking speech defending the privileges committee over its inquiry into Boris Johnson, to join the government.

What might the big changes be later?

The Times reports that Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, is safe in his job. It is telling that this is even considered worthy of comment, as it would be destabilising to make such a change at the Treasury at this stage of the electoral cycle – especially when there are no observable differences in policy between Nos 10 and 11.

However, Hunt was not chosen by Sunak, having been drafted in as an emergency measure by Liz Truss to try to save her premiership. If Sunak had had a free hand, he would probably have preferred to have Oliver Dowden, his friend and ally, as chancellor. Instead, he has to make do with being deputy prime minister.

If not Hunt, then who is for the chop?

The names most often mentioned are Suella Braverman, the home secretary, Therese Coffey, the environment secretary, and Steve Barclay, the health secretary. My theory about Braverman, based on a Namierite analysis of politicians’ interests, is that she will try to provoke Sunak into sacking her, or that she will resign on an issue of principle, possibly relating to repudiating the European Convention on Human Rights.

Lewis Namier, the historian, wrote a book called The Structure of Politics at the Accession of George III that analysed parliamentary parties and shifting allegiances purely by the financial interests of MPs. I am not suggesting anything quite as crude in Braverman’s case, but if she is serious about pursuing the Conservative leadership after possible defeat at the election, it is very much in her interest to escape responsibility for the failure of the “Stop the Boats” slogan quite soon.

And who else is for promotion?

Robert Jenrick, one of three ministers of state at the Home Office, is said to regard his stint as Braverman’s minder on behalf of No 10 as a way of working his way back to cabinet status – he was secretary of state for Housing, Communities and Local Government until Boris Johnson sacked him in 2021, months after he admitted his decision to grant planning permission to a London Docklands development had been unlawful, and days after the government dropped its mandatory target of building 300,000 homes a year.

But Sunak is more likely to want to bring in fresh ministerial talent with less baggage, especially mid-ranking women such as Laura Trott at the Department for Work and Pensions.

Or he may decide not to have a big reshuffle at all. After all, most historians of government think the high turnover of ministers is one of the weaknesses of our system – and the threat of a reshuffle does wonders in imposing discipline and loyalty.