What will the Boris Johnson by-election fallout be for the Tories?

Sean O’Grady examines the factors that will determine just how embarrassing the outcome will be for the Conservative Party

After the local elections in May, this will be the first real-world test of voter sentiment (PA)

The resignation of Boris Johnson and two of his close allies, Nadine Dorries and Nigel Adams, as MPs means there will be three by-elections as a direct result of Johnson’s decision to evade the findings of the Commons privileges committee.

A fourth by-election may well occur in Rutherglen and Hamilton West. That seat is held by the former SNP politician Margaret Ferrier. She was ordered to be suspended from the House after her conviction for breaking Covid regulations, and a recall petition has been opened in her seat. If 10 per cent of the constituents sign up, then there will be a by-election. Ferrier may contest it, but not as an official SNP candidate.

After the local elections in May, these by-elections will be the first real-world test of voter sentiment, and should provide an interesting insight into the matter of whether tactical voting is likely to play a significant role in the next general election. There’ll also be some interest in how the minor parties, such as the Greens and Reform UK, perform. The four seats are a reasonably good mix, and a psephological feast awaits.

When will the by-elections be?

In short, probably on 20 or 27 July. Given that Rishi Sunak probably wants to get these unnecessary distractions out of the way as soon as possible, the writs for the three contests in England will be moved by the government chief whip in the Commons imminently. The speaker will then issue a warrant to the clerk of the crown, who in turn sends the writ to the returning officer.

The by-election timeframe is between 21 and 27 working days from the issuing of the writ. Some of the parties in some of the seats have already chosen candidates, and there has already been early campaigning activity.

Which is the most likely one for Labour to win?

Rutherglen and Hamilton West, for three reasons: first, because it is the most marginal in any case, with Scottish Labour the clear challengers; second, because the SNP, which took the seat from Labour in 2019, is especially weak at the moment; and third, because it is historically a Labour stronghold.

Before the SNP tsunami of 2015, Rutherglen and its predecessor constituencies had been reliably Labour for decades – David Hardie, the brother of Keir, was once the MP. Since 2015, it’s been nip and tuck between Labour and the SNP.

If Anas Sarwar’s candidate can’t grab an easy gain for Labour here, at a time when the SNP is suffering the depth of scandal that has seen its former leader arrested, then Labour may as well write Scotland off. From a purely Scottish point of view, Alex Salmond and his Alba Party will be seeking to exploit the current disarray in the SNP.

Aside from that, Uxbridge and South Ruislip is the prime Labour target, and will probably see the biggest effort. A new candidate, Danny Beales, has been chosen to fight Johnson’s putative successor. Labour needs a swing of about 8 per cent to win, and, factoring in some Lib Dem and Green tactical voting, it’ll be a serious disappointment for Keir Starmer if he fails to prevail in this slice of suburbia.

Heathrow airport is a perennial complicating factor locally, and the arrival of fringe candidates such as Count Binface and Lawrence Fox should liven things up. Keen students of the latest Johnson psychodrama will be keen to see if Johnson turns up for some valedictory campaigning, and if he runs into Sunak on the mean streets (though PMs traditionally don’t risk turning up to by-elections). Intriguingly, a constituency poll by Michael Ashcroft indicated that Johnson would have won a by-election here, but that’s less relevant now.

Mid Bedfordshire is nominally a target for Labour, as runner up, and the party says it’ll be going for it. But recent by-election experience in rural English seats such as Tiverton and North Shropshire suggests that the Liberal Democrats have more potential to score an upset.

Is there any chance the Tories will hold at least one of them?

Yes. Nigel Adams’s former seat of Selby and Ainsty in North Yorkshire is one of the safest in the country, and the Tory majority (not vote) is a colossal 35 per cent. Adams (on 60 per cent) beat his Labour opponent by two to one, with the Lib Dems trailing on 9 per cent.

Even in a very bad year, the Tories ought to be able to cling on here in this mostly prosperous, Brexity rural seat not far from Sunak’s own in Richmond. It’s certainly unclear which of the main opposition parties would have the best chance of a sensation. If the Tories do contrive to lose it, then it’s bad news indeed.

What about tactical voting?

This is going to feature to a degree in all the seats – even in Rutherglen, where pro-union Tories and Liberal Democrats will be tempted to lend their support to Labour. It’ll be most potent in Mid Bedfordshire, however, if there are clear early signs that the Lib Dems are able to establish themselves as the principal challengers. They’ll be buoyed up by the last local elections in May, when they and the independents made strong gains on Central Bedfordshire Council, with Labour and the Greens slipping back.

What will this do for the government’s chances of getting a grip on the political agenda?

Tory party managers will hope that holding the elections in the dog days of July will minimise their news impact, and that the fuss will be over by the time parliament returns in the autumn and the Tory conference kicks off in October. But nervous Tory MPs and candidates are unlikely to be much reassured by what promises to be a night of the psephological long knives. Tory chair Greg Hands will need to do a better job of massaging expectations than he did at the locals.