Is the government heading for a new confrontation with the EU over Northern Ireland?

Although David Frost has dangled the carrot of more harmonious UK-EU relations if the issue is resolved – it seems that things can only get worse before they get better, writes Andrew Grice

Brexit minister David Frost has warned the EU that the UK will take a new ‘approach’ over Northern Ireland (PA)

Only a week after a truce in the “sausage war” between the UK and EU, hostilities have resumed over the Northern Ireland protocol, which created a trade border in the Irish Sea.

Brussels had hoped the two sides would use the three-month grace period, which will allow chilled meats from Great Britain to be sold in Northern Ireland until 30 September, to thrash out a lasting settlement to the crisis.

But David Frost, the Brexit minister, has now launched another round of megaphone diplomacy by warning the EU the government will set out a new approach before parliament begins its summer break on 22 July. Although he denied setting a deadline, he was in effect issuing an ultimatum: if the EU does not come up with concessions to the UK’s liking within two weeks, Boris Johnson might deploy the nuclear option of invoking Article 16 of the protocol to suspend parts of it.

EU officials had thought they had seen the last of such threats when Lord Frost requested – rather than declared – a three-month pause on chilled meats. They will be dismayed by what they view as the UK’s latest attempt to dismantle the protocol and again wonder whether they can trust Mr Johnson. On a visit to the province, Keir Starmer said his meetings there had revealed “a lack of trust in the prime minister as an honest broker”.

For all Johnson’s insistence that the protocol is harming Northern Ireland’s economy and society, in the EU’s eyes he is walking away from a withdrawal agreement he signed (and which Lord Frost negotiated).

The government’s latest move will reinforce the impression that Johnson knew all along he would need to reopen an Irish Sea trade border that would be politically unacceptable, but conceded it in 2019 because his priority then was to break the Brexit deadlock in parliament.

Despite Lord Frost’s warning, Brussels is unlikely to offer significant concessions unless the UK signs up temporarily to EU rules on agri-food standards, which the government has ruled out. EU sources say there is strong support for such a move in the province and argue that both sides must show flexibility.

Lord Frost insisted the government preferred a “consensual approach”, saying this is the “responsible thing to do”. But there are signs Johnson had planned a summer showdown: Edwin Poots, who was leader of the Democratic Unionist Party for just three weeks, told party members the UK government had promised “a significant win” on the protocol, possibly in July.

Although Lord Frost dangled the carrot of more harmonious UK-EU relations if the Northern Ireland issue is resolved, it seems that things can only get worse before they get better.