Joe Biden has a mountain to climb before the midterm elections

Polling does not favour the president and his Democratic Party – and there is less and less scope for turning things around, writes Chris Stevenson

The tale of the tape from the public is not pretty for the US president (AP)

Pollster Gallup recently released an analysis suggesting that the Democrats are facing an “extremely unfavorable election environment” ahead of the midterms in November – essentially, things aren’t looking good.

“The party of the president typically loses US House of Representatives seats in midterm elections – an average of 23 since 1974. However, 2022 is not shaping up to be an average year,” the analysis states, picking up on four polling indicators: presidential approval rating; approval rating for the job Congress is doing; general satisfaction with the state of things in the US; and the perception (positive or negative) of the current economic conditions in America.

The tale of the tape from the public is not pretty for Joe Biden. As of May, his approval rating is 41 per cent, congressional approval is 18 per cent, US satisfaction stands at 16 per cent, and the net view of the economic conditions in the country is minus 32. For comparison, the same set of statistics for former president Donald Trump in 2018, with the Republicans garnering a net loss of 40 seats in the House of Representatives in that year’s midterms, were 41 per cent, 21 per cent, 33 per cent, and plus 43.

More worrying for the Democrats are the comparable percentages from former president Barack Obama’s first term in office in 2010, all of which were higher – if only slightly – than Biden faces now. Obama had an approval rating of 45 per cent, congressional approval stood at 21 per cent, US satisfaction was at 22 per cent, and the view of the economy was at minus 31. During that year’s midterms, the Republicans made a net gain of 63 seats in the House of Representatives and retook control of the chamber. It was the largest shift of seats since the 1948 elections.

The Democrats currently have 220 seats in the House, with 218 needed for a majority. The Republicans have 209, with six seats vacant. Even if the average for incumbent party losses since 1974 was to hold in November’s elections, the Republicans would regain control of the House. Although it is worth noting that the Republicans made a net gain of 12 House seats during the elections in 2020, which means that some of the more likely districts to be “flipped” have already been taken. That may limit the ceiling of possible gains in 2022.

Given the anxiety across the US about inflation – consistently the top issue of concern for Americans in recent polling – and the fact that that is an issue that will potentially get worse before it gets better, it appears difficult for Biden and the Democrats to turn the tide before November.