Why the latest defection to Reform could trigger a wave of Tories switching to Farage’s party
News analysis: The defection of Boris Johnson ally Marco Longhi to Reform UK represents something much bigger than the actions of an unhappy former MP
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Your support makes all the difference.The defection of ex-Tory MP Mario Longhi to the Reform Party is the latest stage in a struggle to the death between Nigel Farage and Kemi Badenoch.
Mr Longhi’s switch was announced by Farage in a blaze of publicity as the centrepiece of a Reform rally in Leicester last night.
It is the latest in a series of regional rallies planned by Reform - and Badenoch would be right to dread the prospect that Mr Farage may taunt her by unveiling yet more Tory turncoats.
A raft of Tory names have defected to Reform in recent weeks, including former MPs from the right of the party, Dame Andrea Jenkyns and Aiden Burley, as well as ConHome founder Tim Montgomerie and a major former Tory donor Nick Candy. This is not forgetting Raul Braverman, husband of the darling of the Tory right Suella Braverman, who herself remains a major target for Farage and his team.
But the big prize for Reform would be to attract a truly high profile Conservative rather than just one of many former Tory MPs discarded by the voters in July last year or a disaffected Tory councillor.
Top of the wish list for some senior figures in Reform is, of course, Boris Johnson. But while Longhi and Jenkyns were both leading supporters of Johnson, no one is seriously expecting to see the former prime minister to defect.
At least not for now…
I forecast in The Independent earlier this week that Reform hoped to lure some senior Tories into joining them, including the former Dudley North MP Mr Longhi.
Longhi is not the first to do so and as things stand I would not be surprised if more follow him – and in rapid succession.
With the Conservatives in total disarray after a landslide defeat in July, Badenoch’s party is in a bitter fight with Farage’s Reform to be the main Right wing opposition to Labour at the next election.
We are in uncharted territory. Never before have the Tories had a serious competitor on the right of politics. And, as things stand, they seem ill-equipped to deal with this new phenomenon.
The two rival parties’ recent spat over who had most members was merely the opening salvo.
Badenoch may at best see round one as a draw, but the defection of Longhi to Reform marks a round two victory for Farage and Co.
If more Tory defections follow, Badenoch will have to draw on all her formidable reserves of resistance to avoid a political knock out. If she does not then there is a danger of a stampede of former Tories heading to Farage’s banner.
Names like former MPs Tom Hunt, Brendan Clarke-Smith and Miriam Cates are being regularly mentioned as potential defectors. Even the arch-Tory but close friend of Farage’s, Jacob Rees-Mogg, another Johnson ally, is another target.
What about former cabinet minister Nadine Dorries? She is yet another Johnson ally who appears to be making it her life’s work to take some sort of misguided revenge for him, especially targeting Ms Badenoch as an alleged conspirator in his downfall.
Then there are MPs who are in Reform’s sights. Rumours refuse to abate about Ms Braverman or former leadership contender Robert Jenrick. What is left of the hardcore Brexiteers could also peel away, although MPs like Mark Francois and Andrew Rosindell claim this is not the case.
If Johnson were to defect, it would be because the trickle of those going over had become a torrent and there was no hope for the old party.
If Ms Badenoch is to prevent this happening, she needs to confront the Reform threat now with ideas, policies and a reason to hold her party together. That does not mean adopting the populist rightwing rhetoric and uncosted fantasy policies of Farage, but a genuine centre-right offering in British politics.
Until then though, it seems that like nature, Tories and the party's natural voter base abhor a vacuum and there is a significant danger Farage could fill it.
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