The impeachment inquiry can bring down Donald Trump even if it fails

Analysis: The Democrats have united behind a clear message on the president – and they can use it to their advantage at the ballot box, writes Chris Stevenson

‘Strike while the iron is hot’: Nancy Pelosi has moved on Trump (AP/AFP)

The Democrats have been trying to tell the American people the story of Donald Trump‘s alleged corruption in the simplest way possible for more than two years.

With Americans loving litigation, they tried first via legal avenues. They pinned their hopes on special counsel Robert Mueller and his report into Russian meddling in the 2016 presidential election and possible obstruction of that investigation by Trump.

When Mueller’s report was not framed as clearly as the party would like, particularly around the 10 instances of potential obstruction, Democrats turned to the courts. Trump’s tax returns and foreign emoluments have all been sought – and fought over – but little has emerged as the White House seeks to protect Trump’s interests. A legal case cannot be presented clearly enough to upend Trump’s “I didn’t do it” and “witch hunt” narrative.

The leading Democrat in the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, has been staunch in her opposition to the political option, impeachment. A legal decision is clear-cut. A political decision is messy and could have consequences at the ballot box if it goes badly. But the Ukraine allegations have changed the narrative.

Trump is accused of pressuring the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, in a July phone call to investigate the son of Joe Biden, the former vice-president and the frontrunner for the 2020 Democratic nomination.

The president has admitted talking to Zelensky about Biden, but denies a “quid pro quo” arrangement. Trump has also admitted delaying aid to Ukraine until recently, but said it was because European nations were not contributing to Kiev and he wants them to do more.

The allegations came after a whistleblower working in US intelligence filed a formal complaint reportedly related to the phone call. The acting director of national intelligence, Joseph Maguire, refused to release the details of the complaint.

The narrative is now simple enough that a flood of Democrats, including those facing tough re-election campaigns, joined the calls for a formal impeachment investigation. Pelosi has the political cover she needs – even if it is unlikely the Republican-led Senate will actually impeach.

The circumstances are similar to elements of the Mueller inquiry: potential assistance from a foreign power to help swing an election. But Democrats appear certain that this Ukraine scandal is clearer. In announcing the inquiry, Pelosi said: “The actions taken to date by the president have seriously violated the constitution... no one is above the law”.

Not much has changed empirically. Six house committees have been investigating various elements of Trump’s conduct, with judiciary committee chairman Jerry Nadler clashing with Pelosi repeatedly over the last few weeks in his belief he was already running an impeachment investigation. But the difference now is that Democrats are all officially on the same page. With clarity of purpose can come clarity of message. Confusion will no longer reign.

If that clarity makes it through to the public hearings, we could see a change in popular opinion. In the same way that such hearings did in the Watergate scandal. With Democrats looking to battle Trump’s social media and Fox News-aided clout, clear public hearings that dominate cable news schedules will help dramatically.

Some Democrats will not be happy that Pelosi has said the other committees will make recommendations to the house judiciary committee, which has the authority to handle impeachment. Their reports could help form articles of impeachment brought against the president. Many Democrats want a laser focus on the Ukraine issue, with articles of impeachment not muddied by talk of Trump’s tax returns or election finance violation allegations.

Trump, as before, has called the whole thing a “witch hunt” and said he has done nothing wrong, trying to undercut Pelosi’s announcement by releasing a partial transcript of the call with Zelensky and preparing to give the whistleblower complaint to congress.

Prevarication and muddying the waters have been mainstays of the Trump playbook, but if Democrats move quickly they may be able to leave the White House unable to respond quickly enough. Trump has already backtracked over some elements revealed by the media while his lawyer Rudy Giuliani has contradicted himself within the same interview.

Pelosi has told Democrats to “strike while the iron is hot”. The political risk is high, with Trump potentially able to gain traction if the Senate blocks impeachment, but Pelosi now sees the possible electoral gains. With a set narrative to put in front of the American people, the party can now act with a much clearer purpose.