Should we return to the office to save the economy?

How sensible is it to encourage people to return to pre-pandemic practices? Is it a vital part of the strategy to restore the economy and to protect jobs and livelihoods? Or could this advice ultimately prove counterproductive, not only for the health of the nation but also for the economy? Ben Chu investigates

The transmission risks in the office environment itself will depend on the precautions taken by the individual employer (EPA)

Workers have this week been advised to return to their normal workplaces after months of working from home.

Ministers and some Tory MPs are concerned about the impact of the lack of office workers on city centre restaurants, cafes, newsagents and other shops and they want people to “get back to work” for the good of the wider economy.

Some newspapers are urging white collar workers to return to their offices as soon as possible, but the trade unions are resistant and industry trade groups are also cool on the idea.

The UK’s chief scientific advisor, Sir Patrick Vallance, has also signalled his opposition to the change of advice.

So, how sensible is it to encourage people to return to offices? Is it a vital part of the strategy to restore the economy and to protect jobs and livelihoods? Or, with fears rising of second waves of the virus, could this advice ultimately prove counterproductive, not only for the health of the nation but also for the economy?

How important is it for the economy to get people back to work?

Ministers have not presented any formal evidence that shows how vital a return to offices is for the health of the broader economy.

The briefings to journalists about why this is so important seem to consist of the experience of ministers and MPs driving around city centres, looking out of their window and seeing empty streets and sensing a problem.

We should be wary of drawing major conclusions from such impressions. The Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD) says that its own research suggest that people working from home have maintained or even increased their productivity during the lockdown.

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors’ has suggested that more working from home could help revive local high streets as workers do more shopping locally.

That said, it’s certainly not unreasonable to conclude that many hospitality and retail businesses geared to catering to office workers in city centres are suffering while so many of their old customers are absent.

Pret a Manger – an iconic city centre office lunch provider – has seen sales fall by more than 70 per cent compared with a year ago, forcing the chain to close 30 shops and shed 1,000 jobs.

It’s also clear that transport service providers – from trains, to underground to buses – that rely on commuter traffic are experiencing a brutal financial squeeze because of a major and ongoing slump in passengers.

Transport for London has received £1.6bn from the government already and says it needs a further £2bn to get through the rest of this year due to a collapse in travellers on the capital’s transport network.

But is it safe to return to the office?

A mass return to the office would entail more use of public transport.

Some worry that this will make contact tracing – widely seen as an essential tool to prevent new outbreaks of the virus – more difficult.

People are required to wear masks on public transport but it’s still feared more commuters could be a source of transmission (EPA)

If someone found to have the virus has visited another household or even a pub there is more chance of tracing those with whom they might have infected than if that person had been on a busy train or bus.

Also, while people are required to wear masks on public transport it’s not easy to police. That could be another source of increased transmission.

In terms of the transmission risks in the office environment itself, that will clearly depend on the precautions taken by the individual employer.

That said, when thinking about worker wellbeing one should consider the issue in the round. There is some evidence that the mental health of people working in overcrowded domestic conditions, particularly young people, has suffered during the lockdown and that returning to the office for this group could be a net personal welfare benefit.

What’s best for the economy, business and workers?

The government is “squeezing the brake pedal”, as the prime minister put it, in its drive to reopen the economy, as manifested by its delay in allowing casinos and beauty salons to restart operations.

But it’s also, simultaneously, pushing down on the accelerator at the same time with its “eat out to help out” restaurant meal subsidy scheme and its growing encouragement for people to return to offices.

That, say some, reflects a fundamental confusion of policy which is liable to end badly.

It all hinges, of course, on what happens to the virus. If the epidemic is firmly under control a push by ministers for people to return to their normal workplaces could be beneficial.

Yet it’s hard to make a definitive judgement about the state of the epidemic.

Some scientists argue that there a clear signs of a resurgence in cases following the easing of large elements of the lockdown in recent months. Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer for England, believes there is a causal link, saying we have “probably reached near the limit of what we can do in terms of opening up society – the idea that we can open up everything and keep the virus under control is clearly wrong”.

Others, though, argue that the recent apparent increase in cases is explained by higher testing rather than a genuine increase in its prevalence.

Whatever the truth there’s sufficient reason, reading the data we have, to be cautious.

And there is a clear danger that an overhasty reopening of the economy will lead to second major outbreak which forces further lockdowns which ultimately cause more damage to businesses and the wider economy than otherwise.

A view is growing that ministers should get firmly on top of the virus – ensuring a very low number of new cases and building up an efficient and proven test, track and trace system – before encouraging people to return to offices.