The government’s fiddling of coronavirus test figures echoes the lies on the side of the Brexit bus

Analysis: There’s a clear pattern of behaviour here. The brazen distortion of Covid-19 testing figures suggests that the Vote Leave team's cavalier attitude to statistics has been carried into Downing Street, says Ben Chu

The £350m a week claim was criticised by the UK Statistics Authority too (Getty)

The latest letter from the head of the UK Statistics Authority to the health secretary Matt Hancock is the most ferocious the official watchdog has ever sent to a politician.

Sir David Norgrove writes that the use of data presented by Mr Hancock and other ministers on the number of Covid-19 tests performed by the government “falls well short” of the Code of Practice for Statistics.

He’s referring to the now well-aired fact that the total daily test figures boasted about by the government include test kits merely posted out and that swabs on a single patient are sometimes counted as multiple tests.

The watchdog usually refrains from commenting on the motivation of ministers when it raps them on the knuckles for statistical offences. Not this time. “The aim seems to be to show the largest possible number of tests, even at the expense of understanding,” says Sir David.

And he finishes with this: “It is not surprising that, given their inadequacy, data on testing are so widely criticised and often mistrusted.”

This has shades of red, that is to say, it has echoes of the big red Brexit referendum bus of the Vote Leave campaign in 2016 and the claim pasted on to the side of that vehicle claiming that the UK sends £350m per week to the European Union. This claim, too, was criticised by the UK Statistics Authority.

Sir David’s predecessor, Sir Andrew Dilnot, said the figure (which of course referred to the gross, not net, UK budget contribution) was “misleading and undermines trust in official statistics” and urged Vote Leave to stop using it. They, of course, refused to do so.

Dominic Cummings, Vote Leave’s campaign director, saw the row as a wonderful publicity coup for the Leave side. Never mind the damage to the concept of truth in public discourse – just count the votes.

Boris Johnson reused the £350m claim in a newspaper article in 2017. The UK Statistics Authority, again, said this was a “clear misuse of official statistics”.

It’s worth recalling the response of Johnson, who was then foreign secretary. He accused the watchdog of a “wilful distortion” of his words and added: “If you had any concerns about my article, it would of course have been open to you to address the points with me in private rather than in this way in a public letter.”

The arrogance and sense of entitlement in that response are unmistakable.

Note too that Johnson, when he was London Mayor, labelled a previous chair of the Statistics Authority, Sir Michael Scholar, a “Labour stooge” after a rebuke for misusing statistics.

“I am not impressed by the conduct of that particular body and its chief,” he regally informed London Assembly members.

There’s a clear pattern of behaviour here. And the brazen misrepresentation of Covid-19 testing figures suggests this reckless attitude to statistics and disdain for the official watchdog has been carried over into Downing Street.

We need to watch the government’s response to Sir David’s rebuke very carefully indeed.

And let’s remind ourselves why it matters. We are moving out of lockdown and into a reliance on a regime of testing, tracking and isolating to control this disease. This means testing people for Covid-19, tracking anyone they have been in contact with and asking those people to isolate themselves.

Testing is therefore a key pillar of that strategy. At the moment, thanks to the Government’s manipulation of the figures, it is unclear to the public how sturdy this pillar is.

That inevitably undermines confidence in it. And that, in turn, undermines public confidence in the entire system. Sir David’s use of the word “mistrust” is crucial here.

A cavalier approach to statistical accuracy and even truth from those in positions of power, unfortunately, can reap short-term electoral rewards, as we have seen.

But, over time, it rots the foundations of our society, pollutes the public realm and threatens our very safety.