What the test and trace system is not telling us

Analysis: Shaun Lintern discusses the emerging NHS initiative – and the lack of evidence of its success

The military assists at a facility in Scarborough (AFP/Getty)

For the country to return to something resembling normal life, the ability of coronavirus to rampantly spread through our towns and cities must be curtailed.

Lockdown has, albeit with terrible consequences for the economy, stopped the virus and reduced the number of daily infections.

But it cannot be a permanent solution and the only option without a vaccine is a successful test, trace and isolate system to crack down on infections when they emerge.

Yesterday the embryonic NHS test and trace system revealed some initial data from its first full week of operation. This was after the quite considerable frustration of MPs on the House of Commons select committee last week who were given no data by the test and trace lead Baroness Dido Harding.

She promised more data. She has yet to deliver and, as such, it is hard to judge whether the test and trace system is actually working.

According to the statistics, 8,117 people who tested positive for coronavirus between 28 May and 3 June were referred to the test and trace system. But we have no idea how many people in total in England were actually positive over that week – so we don’t know if all those who tested positive were put into the system.

Professor John Newton from Public Health England acknowledged that the daily testing figures announced by the government each day included some errors and double counting.

Only 5,407 of those positive cases were successfully contacted by NHS Test and Trace, but it was not yet able to say how many of them were tested and received the result within 24 hours.

Experts have made clear for a test and trace system to be effective it must act with speed in order to stop people spreading the virus.

Baroness Harding said she was working with the UK Statistics Authority to ensure data on 24-hour turnaround times and numbers of positive cases were properly validated.

She used the same argument when she appeared before MPs at the health select committee.

Committee chair Jeremy Hunt had pre-warned Baroness Harding he wanted the data and asked her again to send it before the end of this week. He warned a lack of transparency could damage confidence in the system.

The statistics released yesterday show 33 per cent of those testing positive could either not be contacted by NHS Test and Trace or, if they were, did not provide details of people they had been in close proximity too.

NHS Test and Trace approaches people 10 times to try to make contact, so failing to reach a third of people who tested positive is a cause for serious concern.

In total, NHS Test and Trace successfully got in touch with almost 27,000 people who were in close contact with someone who was infected, but 4,800 people either couldn’t be reached or refused to self-isolate.

Baroness Harding was not willing to say how many actively refused to cooperate.

Without knowing how many positive tests there are in England and how many of them have received their test results in 24 hours after being contacted by NHS Test and Trace we cannot judge the new service.

On top of this, the thousands of infected people not contacted is a serious risk as is the number of contacts not spoken to.

NHS Test and Trace has made a good start but the reality is that coronavirus has shown how easy it is to spread between people.

With thousands not being contacted, the reality is the virus will easily spread as people emerge from lockdown and many of those infected may not even show symptoms.

For the UK to beat this, the test and trace system will need to improve significantly.