What the polls said, what the bookies said, and what happened

A narrow Biden victory is as good for the bookies as it’s bad for polling firms, says James Moore

Philadelphia protesters demand that every vote be counted (Rex)

When it comes to this year’s elections in the US, the polling industry served up what’s best described as a double fault. After predicting a close win for Hillary Clinton in 2016 when Donald Trump took the White House, they suggested Joe Biden would comfortably dethrone the incumbent in 2020.

Poll trackers consistently put Biden’s nationwide lead at about eight points, the biggest a candidate for the Oval Office has enjoyed since 1996 when Bill Clinton cruised to a second term. The final batch of pre-election surveys showed the Democratic Party leading the race for the presidency by between seven and 12 points, albeit with two notable exceptions.

An Investors Business Daily/TIPP poll had Biden just 2.8 points ahead, which now looks prescient. Rasmussen, meanwhile, put the lead at just a single percentage point.