Inside Politics: Polling day sees post-Brexit ‘gunboat’ drama

Boris Johnson sends Royal Navy to patrol Jersey waters amid fears of blockade by French boats, writes Adam Forrest

(PA)

Donald Trump is furious that he no longer gets his say on social media. He called his upheld Facebook ban a “total disgrace” and claimed the company must “pay a price” for trying to silence him. Britain’s politicians will be forced to shut up today. The British electorate finally gets its say at the ballot box. Voters in England will decide whether they like what they’ve heard from Boris Johnson or Keir Starmer. And voters in Scotland will decide whether they want to hear a lot more from Nicola Sturgeon about an independence referendum once the elections are done.

Inside the bubble

Political editor Andrew Woodcock on what to look out for today:

Polling day is here. But there’s no 10pm exit poll tonight, and many of crucial results won’t be known until Friday afternoon and Saturday. Elsewhere today, Boris Johnson’s senior ministers will meet to agree on the “green list” of countries which British holidaymakers will be allowed to travel to and from, quarantine-free, from 17 May.

Daily briefing

DEFLATE EXPECTATIONS: The Tories have a 10-point lead over Labour going into Super Thursday, according to a YouGov poll for The Times (conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday). Boris Johnson played down expectations by claiming that the elections would “be very tough” for his Conservatives. Keir Starmer is steeling himself for a difficult 48 hours. It already feels like he’s used the line about there being a “mountain to climb” about a million times as part of his own expectation game. “I’ve got to make sure the Labour Party is in a position to win the next general election when it comes,” he said on the final day of campaigning. The rhetorical games over a Scottish independence referendum are already under way. Johnson got his retaliation in early by saying “this is not the time” for indyref2. The SNP’s hopes of winning the majority needed to boost claims of a mandate for indyref2 are “hanging in the balance”. Polling guru Prof John Curtice gave Nicola Sturgeon a “50-50 chance” of an outright majority, based on the last five polls.

TIMING IS EVERYTHING: So when exactly will know the results? We’re expecting to hear about the winner of the Hartlepool by-election around 4am on Friday. The Tees Valley mayoralty won’t be declared until 7pm on Friday. And in the other big, narrative-defining contest, the West Midlands mayoralty, all second preferences votes will be in at 4.30pm on Friday. In Scotland, the Holyrood count doesn’t start until 9am on Friday morning. Around 47 constituency MSPs will be confirmed on Friday and the rest are expected on Saturday. In Wales, the Senedd count will start at 9am on Friday, with all expected to declare by the end of the day. Many of the results expected from 2pm. As for the council elections, results from 19 councils are expected at 2am on Friday, with the rest declaring during Friday and Saturday. Remember: masks will be expected inside polling stations, but you don’t need to bring your own pencil.

JERSEY BUOYS: High drama on the high seas. Boris Johnson’s government has sent a Royal Navy vessel to patrol the waters around Jersey, over fears of a blockade by French boats protesting post-Brexit fishing rights. “Boris Sends Gunboats into Jersey” is the convenient front page headline in the Mail this morning, as voters head to the polls. It follows the threatening suggestion from a French government minister that France could cut Jersey’s electricity supply if their fishing fleets were not given more access. French fishermen – who claim they are being unfairly blocked from getting licences – are due to protest at Jersey’s St Helier port. Boris Johnson promised “unwavering support” for Jersey after speaking to the island’s governor last night. The PM said any blockade by French boats would be unjustified. The government is now drawing up plans to “retaliate” over the threat to cut electricity supply, according to the Daily Telegraph. Ministers are said to be reviewing the Britain’s energy links with France.

MICHEL, DO TELL: Some more post-Brexit drama now. Ex-EU negotiator Michel Barnier has finally released his memoir, Le Grande Illusion, and it is causing le grande stink. What have we learned? Well, Barnier was clearly disgusted by the bluster and grandstanding from the British side during the whole process. The quote from King Lear “Bring in madness, banish reason!” features a lot in his 500-page book. Barnier describes British tactics as “infantile” – accusing Boris Johnson of “pathetic” and “almost childish” provocations. He was not impressed when the UK’s “cold” negotiator David Frost turned up 45 minutes late for lunch, then told him in a “somewhat arrogant tone” that all the important stuff in their negotiations will ultimately be dealt with by Johnson and Ursula von der Leyen. But it turns out that Barnier really likes our breakfasts. He dropped the culinary bombshell: “I’ve always preferred English breakfast, with fried eggs, to French croissants.”

PRIZES MEANT POINTS: Oscar and Grammy winners will be among those able to get special visas to live and work in the UK more easily, home secretary Priti Patel has announced. The Home Office will “fast track” the process for the winners of prestigious arts awards – including those who get Baftas, Tonys or Golden Globes – in a bid to attract the “best and brightest” under the new points-based immigration system. Meanwhile, there was a dramatic twist at the G7 talks, as the entire Indian delegation headed into self-isolation after two Covid cases were detected. India’s foreign minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar pulled out of further face-to-face talks, but he had already met home secretary Priti Patel on Tuesday. Despite India’s status on the UK’s red list, diplomats were exempt from the rules. Keir Starmer said he wanted to “get to the bottom of how this happened,” calling for greater border vigilance.

On the record

“This is exactly what our new point-based immigration system was designed for – attracting the best and brightest based on the skills and talent they have.”

Priti Patel on the fast-track rules for Oscar and Grammy winners.

From the Twitterati

“Starmer won’t succeed until he removes the hard left, relies on his own values not focus groups, stops pulling political punches, embraces the centre ground .... In the meantime millions are politically homeless.”

Anna Soubry suggests Starmer is missing out on the centrist vote…

“Starmer and the other principled moderates need to set up a new party catering to the politically homeless Waitrose shopper, who wants change in this country (but not actual change).”

…but Ash Sarkar scoffs – reminding Soubry of her own failed experiment.

Essential reading

Tom Peck, The Independent: What if the real ‘H’ is David Cameron, not Boris Johnson?

Andrew Grice, The Independent: Will the Queen’s Speech see another empty promise on social care?

Isabel Hardman, The Spectator: How Labour will spin defeat in Hartlepool

Chris Deerin, New Statesman: Nicola Sturgeon on the looming battle for indyref2

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