Trump seems to be cooling off – but his cold war with Iran will continue

America’s war with Iran is not over, even if a regional conflagration has been averted

So World War Three is off for now. Far from raining down the fire and fury he often threatens, President Trump offered only routine his abuse of the Iranians. He even ended his startlingly measured address by talking about a new multilateral nuclear agreement with Iran. He namechecked his allies and hinted at a larger role for Nato in the region. He promised Iran would never have a nuclear weapon – but asked France, Germany, Britain, Russia and China to secure a new deal to restrain Iran’s nuclear programme. The de-escalation has begun.

The Iranians, for their part, appear to have been careful to warn Iraq of their intention to lob 22 ballistic missiles at American bases on Iraqi soil – perhaps why many missed their target. Through leaks and back channels, the Iranians sent a message while ensuring that no Americans, nor anyone else, was injured during the assault.

Evidently, Tehran calculated that, besides adding another layer of acrimony to a four-decade cold war, scores of Americans coming home in body bags during an election year would leave Trump with no option but to retaliate.

The Iranians were also clear that this non-lethal attack “concluded” their retaliation. The US president’s initial tweeted response to the destruction of American military hardware was “All is well!” His uncharacteristic cheeriness was a sign that tempers were cooling.

The mystery that remains is what happened to the Ukrainian passenger plane that came down shortly after take-off at Tehran airport, killing all 176 on board. The suspicion is that it was caught, deliberately or inadvertently, in some Iranian hostile fire. Iran says it will not hand over the black box to Boeing, which only adds to suspicion that this was no accident. For now, though, it does not seem to be a matter of contention with the Americans.

Iran knows that it cannot win any conventional war with America, with the exception of an American invasion (an inconceivable option for Washington post-Afghanistan and Iraq). The country is therefore not going to seriously confront America on conventional terms, even under extreme provocation. Instead, the Iranians will use other strategies to pursue their campaign to drive the US and its allies out of the Middle East.

Diplomatic and political pressure from Baghdad has already seen Iraq demand the evacuation of US troops from its territory. General Soleimani built up a formidable network of links to militias and terror groups across the region; Houthi rebels in Yemen can be ordered to wreak revenge on Saudi Arabia as a proxy for the United States; Hamas in Palestine, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Shia militias in Syria can also target Israeli and western assets at will. Hostages and shipping can be seized.

This kind of asymmetric warfare was a technique Soleimani masterminded – which is why he became such a threat to America that he was executed. Yet the infrastructure he developed – the terror cells and paramilitaries, their funding and arms – remain in place. Longer term, Iran will also continue to accelerate its nuclear weapons programme.

America’s war with Iran is not over, even if a regional conflagration has been averted. The White House insists that it does not want a war with Iran, but that it could end one. That is untrue. More than most, the cold war between Iran and the US is unwinnable. That is why it has dragged on since the fall of the shah in 1979 – and why it seems set to continue.