Labour’s manifesto at least pushes back against the Tory dream of an election that is all about Brexit

Inside Westminster: The manifesto launch undoubtedly energised Labour and its leader. For the first time in this campaign, Corbyn looked capable of the magic he weaved two years ago, when he cut the Tories’ lead from 20 to two points during the campaign

They say the best things in life are free, but Labour’s manifesto, packed with offers of free stuff, comes with a heavy price tag. Before its publication, I rattled off a list of the freebies I could think of: broadband; university tuition; personal care for the over-65s; dental check-ups; prescription charges; hospital parking and more free childcare.

Reading the manifesto, there were more: shares for workers; bus travel for under-25s; lifelong learning; school meals for all primary pupils and TV licences for over-75s.

Many items on this wish list are popular, as are Labour’s nationalisation plans. The list is longer than the party’s 2017 programme, and thus much more expensive. The Resolution Foundation think tank says Labour is “doubling down”: its proposed extra spending jumps from £70bn two years ago to £135bn – £55bn from higher investment (with climate change a bigger priority) and £80bn on day-to-day spending.

What the manifesto lacked, I thought, was a sense of Labour’s priorities. Such a sweeping transformation of the economy and public services could not happen on day one, however much Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell would wish it. A programme for Labour’s first 100 days in power would be a good idea. It would tackle the potential flaw in Labour’s plans: the credibility question. However much voters like individual policies, they might not vote for the whole package if they don’t trust Labour to deliver it.

However, the manifesto launch undoubtedly energised Labour and its leader. For the first time in this campaign, Corbyn looked capable of the magic he weaved two years ago, when he cut the Tories’ lead from 20 to two points during the campaign. “We have fired our best shot,” one Labour frontbencher said. “The manifesto gave us booster rockets in 2017. We need it to happen again.”

One advantage for Labour of such a strong, comprehensive programme is that it will help Corbyn keep the spotlight on domestic issues, denying the Tories and Liberal Democrats the “Brexit election” they want. Labour is quite happy to have a debate about the role of the state, the level of public spending and tax or even whether it would turn the clock back to the 1970s.

Despite their outward optimism, both Labour and the Tories have plenty of private fears. For Labour, it is, as one candidate admitted, “the credibility question”. For the Tories, it is whether they can make the election about Brexit and who would be the best prime minister, rather than Labour’s policies.

Declaring it a “Brexit election” – and answering a question about climate change with “get Brexit done”, as Boris Johnson did in Tuesday’s ITV debate – doesn’t guarantee the voters or media will view it as such. Theresa May also wanted the 2017 contest to be dominated by Brexit and leadership, but was not strong enough to build a campaign around it, and austerity eclipsed Brexit. Tory strategists are quietly optimistic that this time will be different. Indeed, Johnson is a much stronger figure, capable of carrying the weight of the Tory campaign almost single-handed. Brexit is a more immediate issue, and the Tories can now claim they are at least starting to end austerity. This battle to set the election agenda could decide it.

Reports from the front line to Conservative campaign headquarters suggest the party is winning over people who have never previously voted for it. But no one is counting their chickens: May received similar intel in 2017, but won only a handful of Leave-voting Labour seats in the north and midlands – the crucial battleground again.

The Tories’ private fear is that Labour squeezes the Lib Dems in the fight for the Remain vote. It’s starting to happen – Labour’s support among Remainers has risen from 36 to 43 per cent, according to Sir John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University – and the Lib Dems’ failure so far to achieve lift-off could increase it. The election would then become a genuinely close race; while the Tories have successfully squeezed the Brexit Party vote, there might not be much juice left in that lemon.

The two main parties anxiously await the next polls. In a week, they will probably know whether Labour can repeat its 2017 trick. Even then, they won’t be entirely sure of the result: the unknown factor will be the extent of anti-Tory, anti-Brexit tactical voting. Privately, Tory officials fear it, and yet Labour frets it will not be widespread enough.

Even if the Tories maintain a comfortable poll lead, they will continue to insist the race is close. Sir Lynton Crosby, their former elections guru whose protege Isaac Levido is running this campaign, reminds the Tories that 40 per cent of voters woke up on election day in 2017 thinking May was set for a huge majority. That allowed many to vote for other parties.

As one minister put it: “This time, we’ve got to make sure people vote with their head, not their heart.”