Leadership contests are usually good for parties

The Conservatives have taken a beating in the opinion polls, but that may be about to change, writes John Rentoul

In government, leadership changes can advertise renewal (Getty)

In the last few days before Boris Johnson announced his resignation, the opinion polls suggested that the Conservatives were losing support. As the prime minister protested bitterly that “we’re actually only a handful of points behind in the polls”, a series of polls were published putting Labour 11 to 14 points ahead.

Labour spirits were also lifted the next day when Durham constabulary announced that Keir Starmer had “no case to answer” over allegations that coronavirus laws had been broken at a campaign event last year. But that was a victory in a war that was already over, and those polls were a snapshot of the past.

With each of the two leadership contests that the Conservatives have held since they formed a government in 2010, the party has gained support. When Theresa May presented herself as the unexpected beneficiary of other candidates’ stumbles, the voters liked what they saw. Three years later, when she had failed to make Brexit mean Brexit, the Tories recovered in the polls as Johnson, still at that point the most popular politician in Britain, won a comfortable victory.

In fact, leadership elections are generally good for parties. In government they can advertise renewal – one reason it was a mistake for Labour not to have a contest to replace Tony Blair in 2007. In opposition, they can introduce a fresh face, such as Blair in 1994 or David Cameron in 2005. Labour also gained ground during the long 2010 contest between the Miliband brothers.

Sometimes, public opinion remains unmoved. The Conservatives didn’t make much headway when William Hague was chosen in 1997 or Iain Duncan Smith in 2001. The rallies for Jeremy Corbyn had no effect on national opinion polls in 2015: it wasn’t until the 2017 general election that a significant number of voters paid attention to Corbyn and thought he was worthy of support.

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But the one thing that leadership elections guarantee is saturation coverage by the media. Starmer will struggle to gain any attention over the next two months, so if there are unpopular but necessary things he needs to do, now is the time to do them.

It will be a frustrating period for Labour, as Johnson ceases to drag the Tories down and the leadership election is the only story in town. It seemed possible for a moment that the Tories might descend into recrimination and civil war, but even that, provided it doesn’t get completely out of hand, only guarantees more coverage. Jacob Rees-Mogg describing Rishi Sunak as a “socialist” chancellor seems more knockabout than bloodbath.

I suspect the Tory party’s survival instinct will kick in, and that by the end of the campaign the new prime minister will enjoy a honeymoon boost in the opinion polls. Starmer, having seen off one prime minister, will have to start again with the next one.

Yours,

John Rentoul

Chief political commentator