Whatever happened to those fixed penalty notices?

It is now two weeks since the prime minister returned his police questionnaire, writes John Rentoul

The Metropolitan Police seems to be dragging its feet when it comes to Partygate (PA Wire)

Adam Wagner, the human rights lawyer, has a rule for police investigations, which is that they always take twice as long as expected. The investigation into allegations of lockdown-breaking parties in Downing Street seems likely to take several times longer than that.

It is now two weeks since the prime minister returned his police questionnaire. During the pandemic most people who received fixed penalty notices for breaking coronavirus laws were issued with them almost immediately, but despite lip service being paid to the idea that everyone is equal under the law, these cases seem to be being treated more carefully.

I have no inside information, but I have good sources in the betting industry and I can observe from the outside what might be in the interest of the police officers in charge of the investigation. I was surprised to discover when I looked it up that the betting markets think there is only a 20 per cent chance that Boris Johnson will be fined by the police.

I thought the police had launched their investigation only because Dame Cressida Dick, the outgoing commissioner, felt the evidence of wrongdoing presented to her by Sue Gray, the civil servant who carried out the internal inquiry, was so strong. Given her reluctance to get involved, I thought it more likely than not that the police would conclude that the prime minister had broken the law and would issue him with a penalty notice.

However, the terms of the bet on the Smarkets website, when I looked at it more closely, are whether Boris Johnson will be fined by police “before the end of March”. So the people who are betting are not necessarily saying that they think the prime minister will get off; they may actually be betting that the Metropolitan Police will take at least until the end of this month to decide.

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I think the investigating officers will think it is in their interest to take their time. They will want to consult lawyers. They will want to have discussions with the Crown Prosecution Service, because if any of the partygoers – I mean gatheringgoers – refuse to pay their fines a decision will have to be made on whether to prosecute.

They may even want to talk to the civil service about their disciplinary procedures. Above all, they want to give public opinion as much time as possible to cool down; the last thing they want is to be at the heart of a popular outcry and media frenzy which threatens to have political consequences.

But if Ukraine is ever off the front pages, the pressure on the police to reach a conclusion will start to build, and they will have to decide. But probably not before the end of March.

Yours,

John Rentoul

Chief political commentator