Could Jeremy Corbyn really become mayor of London?

Allies of the former Labour leader have urged him to run in 2024, writes John Rentoul

A Corbyn candidacy would split the Labour vote between him and Khan (Getty Images)

Allies of Jeremy Corbyn, the former Labour leader, have urged him to run for mayor of London when Sadiq Khan’s second term expires in May 2024, according to a report in HuffPost on Friday.

The idea has some immediate plausibility. Corbyn would stand a good chance of winning, either as an independent or for a “Peace and Justice” party, which he has been thinking about setting up. He would have a similar profile to Ken Livingstone, who won as an independent after he left the Labour Party in 2000.

A mayoral bid would solve Corbyn’s dilemma of whether to stand again as MP for Islington North, which he would have to do as an independent, having been expelled from the parliamentary Labour Party. The next London mayoral election is likely to coincide with the date of the next general election.

There are two big arguments against. One is that he might not win. This is complicated by the change in the voting system, which means that if he stands he may allow the Conservative candidate to win. The government has changed the system to “first past the post” – a single vote in which the candidate with the most votes wins, as in parliamentary elections, instead of the first-and-second-preference system that has been used since the mayoralty was created.

That means a Corbyn candidacy would split the Labour vote between him and Khan – who intends to run for a third term – and could let the Conservative through. Although Corbyn might insist that it was Khan who was splitting the “left” vote, he might be embarrassed if the polls suggested he had enabled a Tory win when Khan could have been re-elected.

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The other is that Corbyn would be 75 a few days after the election, putting himself forward for a four-year term. Much as he enjoys his role as the elder statesperson of the anti-imperialist factions, I am not sure he would relish an executive leadership role. Nor was he good at delegating when he was Labour leader.

Let us wait and see what the opinion polling shows. For all his aversion to the apparatus of public relations in politics, his vanity may allow himself to be persuaded if the polls suggested there was strong support for him – and especially if they suggested that he had a better chance of winning the mayoralty against the official Labour candidate than of holding his seat against the official Labour candidate in Islington North.

Yours,

John Rentoul

Chief political commentator