Delhi’s election result sends a clear message to India’s ruling BJP – but don’t write Modi off just yet

Rivals do not have the infrastructure, following or charismatic leadership to challenge the prime minister on a national scale, writes Adam Withnall

Under Modi, the BJP has become a well-oiled election-winning machine (AFP/Getty)

Reporting from Delhi during election season, it would have been tempting to come away with the conclusion that Narendra Modi’s ruling national party, the BJP, were a sure thing to seize back power of the capital’s assembly.

Under Modi and his home minister Amit Shah, the BJP has become a vast and well-oiled election-winning machine. While Congress – the party of Gandhi and Nehru – has been in decline, Modi’s Hindu nationalists stormed to a landslide victory in the 2014 general election and then, last year, did even better.

Their strategy for the Delhi election, which was held on Saturday and the results counted yesterday, was to bring down upon the capital all their nation-leading might at once.

So everywhere you went, the streets were being pounded by saffron-wearing, lotus-adorned BJP campaigners. Every couple of days another big name from national politics would appear in the city to lead a rally. And the Indian media, mostly Modi-friendly, was full of hostile coverage of the peaceful, women-led sit in protest at Shaheen Bagh.

Consistently, however, the polls – first opinion, then exit, and finally the results – have told a different story – of ordinary Delhiites ignoring the nationalist rhetoric in favour of a party they see as doing a good job of governance.

Speaking to people in Delhi, whether they be working-class, Muslim, women or the homeless, the message in recent weeks has been clear – never mind the identity politics, the incumbent Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is working for me.

Yesterday’s confirmation that AAP has indeed romped to a second consecutive victory in Delhi, taking 63 of 70 available seats, is actually just the latest setback for Modi at state level. Since December 2018, the BJP has also lost power in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra and Jharkhand.

Journalists like to draw broader conclusions from results like these, and the temptation this time, from so many defeats in a row, is to argue that Modi is in decline.

The problem, though, is that in reality Modi is still hugely popular. And not one of the parties beating the BJP locally – not AAP, nor Shiv Sena, JMM or even Congress – has the infrastructure or following or charismatic leadership to challenge Modi on the national scale.

Indian voters, in one state after another, are making sophisticated choices – yes, with his strongman persona, harsh words for Pakistan and chummy relationship with Trump, Modi for prime minister. But when it comes to the real issues – jobs, infrastructure, schools for our children – we will vote for whoever promises to govern most competently.

Once again, India defies easy characterisation or tempting conclusions. But if one message comes out of the Delhi election, it is to the BJP: stop trying to win state elections with national bogeyman tactics and start treating voters with the respect they deserve.

Yours,

Adam Withnall

Asia editor