I was wrong about the midterms

I thought inflation and the economy would matter more to voters than the Supreme Court overturning Roe v Wade. Mea culpa, admits Eric Garcia

Wednesday 31 August 2022 21:30 BST

Republicans are finding themselves on the defensive in regard to abortion rights (Getty)

The day that the Supreme Court announced its Dobbs v Jackson decision that overturned Roe v Wade, I told my Independent colleagues who had come down from New York that this would not change a single thing about the political landscape.

My reasoning for this was that US president Joe Biden’s approval ratings were – and continue to be – fairly dismal. Even in polling after Dobbs, I noticed that people continued to rank abortion lower in terms of their voting concerns than the economy and inflation. Even after Dobbs was decided, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that inflation had hit 9.1 per cent, and the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed that the economy had shrunk for a second consecutive quarter, typically an indicator that a recession is imminent.

I also thought that the Democrats’ inability to codify the protections of Roe v Wade meant that voters would see the party as virtually ineffective; and further, that people would fail to see Biden, an old white Catholic man who has always seemed squeamish talking about abortion, as a natural advocate of women’s rights.

Similarly, I thought that petrol prices would be at the front of voters’ minds, given rising fuel prices. In addition, when my colleagues Holly Baxter, Julia Sacqui, Rachel Sharp and I got to the court building on the day on which Roe v Wade was overturned, I noticed that the protesters we saw there were overwhelmingly white people (and mainly white women). Very few people of colour were there – yet people of colour comprise the main demographic that the Democrats need to turn out in the midterm elections if they want to have any chance of avoiding a massacre.

Well, it turns out I was wrong, so consider this my mea culpa. In my defence, I still think that all of these factors were true at the time. It’s simply that the facts on the ground have changed.

For one, the Democrats have overperformed in special elections. While many people point to Kansas bucking an attempt to amend the state’s constitution to allow for abortion restrictions, it’s actually much bigger than that. The Democrats performed better in special congressional elections in Nebraska and Minnesota, even when they lost. In addition, they held a seat in New York’s 19th district last week. The 19th is a classic swing district that voted for Barack Obama in 2012, Donald Trump in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020, but Democrat Pat Ryan held the seat largely by campaigning on defending abortion rights.

Furthermore, since then, inflation and petrol prices have dropped. The former went virtually unchanged during the past month as a result of the latter falling precipitously. Similarly, the US economy continues to add jobs.

Meanwhile, Republicans find themselves on the defensive, with Senate candidates such as Blake Masters in Arizona trying to backtrack on their previous stance on abortion.

And as for those white female voters? It turns out they might actually be a boon. A CBS News/YouGov poll showed that in July, 45 per cent of white women with college degrees planned to vote for the Democrats, but now 54 per cent of them plan to do so in the midterms.

This isn’t to say that everything is hunky dory for the Democrats. That CBS survey still projected that the Republicans could win 12 seats. But the climate is very different now. We’ll keep updating our understanding here in Washington and across the country. This week, I’ll be headed to Pennsylvania to talk to swing voters.

Yours,