There is plenty of political capital still to be won and lost over Brexit

Our exit from the EU is unique as a flagship government policy in that its immediate impact is about restriction, not opportunity, writes Andrew Woodcock

Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer have plenty left to win and lose (PA)

As the UK finally transitions away from the EU and into Brexit, there has also been a transition in the political message being sent out by the government.

The battle between Remain and Leave is over, ministers declare ever louder, and it is now time for everyone – whichever way they voted in the 2016 referendum – to get behind Brexit, seize the opportunities it offers and make it a success.

This is the weapon Boris Johnson will wield every time critics sound the alarm about the many negative consequences EU withdrawal is likely to bring in its train.

Why are you still moaning? Tories will ask. Why don’t you try to make Brexit work? Don’t you want Britain to succeed?

It’s a question that presents a dilemma for former Remain voters. Of course they want Britain to succeed – that’s why they voted Remain. But now we have Brexit, do they want Brexit to succeed?

I’ve heard the situation compared to an athlete who finds at the start of a race that his coach has tied his shoelaces together because the coach thinks it will make him run faster. Of course he wants to succeed in the race, but does that mean he wants to make the shoelace tactic work? And if thinks the shoelace tactic is foolish, does that mean he doesn’t want to win?

Remain voters willing to respond to Mr Johnson’s call to make Brexit work also face the problem of finding any opportunities that are actually there for them to seize.

Brexit is virtually unique as a flagship government policy in that its immediate impact is to introduce new restrictions rather than new opportunities. When Margaret Thatcher sold off council houses and privatised industries, when John Major created the National Lottery, Tony Blair devolved power to Scotland and Wales or David Cameron legalised same-sex marriage, voters might agree with the policies or not, but no one had any difficulty identifying people who could now do something which they previously couldn’t.

With Brexit, the big gains involve abstract ideas like sovereignty, with any practical opportunities still some time off and dependent on future legislation to diverge from Brussels standards or new trade deals, which go beyond what the UK already enjoyed as an EU member.

And with the Trade and Cooperation Agreement up for review after five years, grumbles could turn into pressure on the government to renegotiate parts of the deal to make life easier. And that could make for a big political battle in the 2024 general election.

At heart, that is what the new Brexit message is all about. If Johnson can recast complaints about Brexit as defeatist moaning and blame its failings on those who didn’t try hard enough to make it work, he stands a chance of neutralising an issue which could otherwise threaten his bid for re-election. 

Yours,

Andrew Woodcock

Political editor