The removal of Tory leaders can be brutal – or down to a bloodless ballot

In reality, Boris Johnson’s fate now lies in the hands of a few of his most senior cabinet colleagues, writes Andrew Woodcock

Tory lore has it that ‘he who wields the dagger never claims the throne’ (PA)

Boris Johnson is facing a moment of maximum peril for his leadership, as Westminster awaits the result of a probe into a series of alleged breaches of Covid rules at 10 Downing Street.

Following the prime minister’s apology on Wednesday, the House of Commons has been abuzz with gossip about Tory MPs declaring no confidence in Johnson and cabinet ministers preparing bids to oust him.

Once upon a time, a Tory leader who had lost the confidence of his party would have been quietly removed by means of a discreet visit from the unidentified grandees known as the “men in grey suits”. In more modern times, a “stalking horse” candidate with no real prospect of victory would be sent out to issue a challenge to the leader as a means of testing the water for more serious contenders.

Sir Anthony Meyer took on this role in 1989 as doubts grew over Margaret Thatcher’s premiership. He won only 33 votes to Thatcher’s 314, but the fact that some 60 Tory MPs either backed him, spoilt their ballot papers or abstained made the following year’s challenge by Michael Heseltine which led to her removal more thinkable.

After Sir John Major suffered years of destabilisation at the hands of his own MPs – including a leadership contest in which he saw off John Redwood in 1995 – his successor William Hague moved to rewrite the rules and regularise future challenges.

Under the system now in place, the chair of the backbench 1922 Committee, Sir Graham Brady, must call a confidence vote if he receives letters demanding one from 15 per cent of Tory MPs – currently 54. A simple majority in this secret ballot determines whether the leader stays or goes.

The coming weeks will inevitably feature endless guesswork over how many letters have made their way to Sir Graham, but he is meticulous in never revealing the number until it hits the all-important threshold. And in a way, the 54 figure is not what really matters. Losing the support of a few dozen disgruntled backbenchers is one thing, but it is a long way from a majority wanting you out.

After all, Theresa May was subjected to a confidence vote in December 2018 and sailed through by 200 votes to 117, only to be forced out of office by more brutal means six months later. The only Tory leader to have actually been forced out by a vote of this kind was Iain Duncan Smith, defeated by 90 votes to 75 in 2003.

In reality, Mr Johnson’s fate lies in the hands of a few of his most senior cabinet colleagues. If the chancellor, Rishi Sunak, or foreign secretary Liz Truss were to resign and declare their lack of confidence in the leader, they could trigger a haemorrhage of support among MPs fearful that Johnson has become an obstacle to their chances of retaining their seats at the next election.

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Rumours are currently swirling around SW1 about both being “on manoeuvres”, discreetly distancing themselves from Johnson and building up a following of MPs for a contest which might come sooner rather than later.

Tory lore has it that “he who wields the dagger never claims the throne”. But while this may have been for Lord Heseltine, it is doubtful that the adage still holds. Certainly, Mr Johnson himself did more than anyone to undermine both of his predecessors – David Cameron and Ms May – and paid no price for it in terms of electability.

In the end, the crucial factor may be his willingness to fight for the job which he dreamed of for much of his life, but seems not to have enjoyed much since winning it less than three years ago.

Yours,

Andrew Woodcock

Political editor